Space Forum / Space Station / February 2010

Brian Gaff had uiteengezet :

I have serious doubts ESA is going to develop a manned rated ATV,
because they are building a Soyuz launchpad at ESA launch center.
However, the ESA site does not rule that out.
My bet is on a ATV with return capability for now.

http://www.esa.int/esaMI/Launchers_Access_to_Space/SEMQ5P57ESD_0.html

Yes, I believe that is the case.

This is true.  It's an incremental development approach which takes into
account the relatively low level of funding for ESA.  But compared to the US
history of aborted manned space vehicles (HL-20, X-38, CRV, and etc.), I
think this approach is the better one.

Jeff

It has only been a few days since the USA announced plans to consider
forming a committee to study the feasability of submitting a budget that
contains defunding for Constallation.

Once people have absorbed the news and the future plans (or lack
thereof) for the USA become official, then you might see ESA propose to
convert ATV to manned vehicle.

Or perhaps Japan might decide to do that.

It also depends on how many Soyuz manned vehicles Russia can spit out
each year and at what price. If there is a view that there might be
shortages in manned capacity, then ESA or Japan might see some
justification in building manned versions of their vehicles. But if
Russia is able to ramp up production and keep prices reasonable, then
tyre might not be much of a point in such a project.

ESA is perhaps better positioned since it has its Arianne 5 rocket with
sufficient number of flights to have some idea of its reliability. (it
has been a while sicne they've had massive fireworks in Kourou).