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How 'bout that - Shannon was right

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Jim in Houston - 21 Aug 2007 18:07 GMT
To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
Seriously - it's good to see her and her crew home safe and sound.
Gotta admit, I was breathing shallow for awhile there.
Jim in Houston.

Contrary to popular opinion RN does not mean Real Nerd!

Teddy Roosevelt's mother said: "Fill what is empty, empty what is full, and scratch where it itches"

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Craig Fink - 21 Aug 2007 18:41 GMT
> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
> Seriously - it's good to see her and her crew home safe and sound.
> Gotta admit, I was breathing shallow for awhile there.
> Jim in Houston.

Video of the broken tile looks like it did on-orbit. :-)
Jim in Houston - 21 Aug 2007 18:45 GMT
>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
>> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
>Video of the broken tile looks like it did on-orbit. :-)
Yes, better than the arcjet model. That's great. I don't know about
you, but I'm breathing easier. I really never doubted that everything
would go ok, but there is always that lingering doubt.
Jim in Houston.

Contrary to popular opinion RN does not mean Real Nerd!

Teddy Roosevelt's mother said: "Fill what is empty, empty what is full, and scratch where it itches"

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Craig Fink - 21 Aug 2007 18:52 GMT
>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
>>> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> would go ok, but there is always that lingering doubt.
> Jim in Houston.

I'm just really glad Barbara Morgan had a great flight. :-)
nmp - 21 Aug 2007 18:58 GMT
> I'm just really glad Barbara Morgan had a great flight. :-)

Yes. I thought the line at "wheelstop" was just a tad corny though: "you
gave new meaning to higher education". Come on!
Unclaimed Mysteries - 21 Aug 2007 23:42 GMT
>> I'm just really glad Barbara Morgan had a great flight. :-)
>
> Yes. I thought the line at "wheelstop" was just a tad corny though: "you
> gave new meaning to higher education". Come on!

That's actually some quality comedy, compared to some of the lines
they've used.

On the other hand, "I just flew in from from the International Space
Station and boy are my arms tired" probably doesn't convey the desired
tone either.

C.

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MichaelJP - 22 Aug 2007 10:56 GMT
>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
>>> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> would go ok, but there is always that lingering doubt.
> Jim in Houston.

Me too - I always hate the comms blackout, and it seemed to last a bit
longer this time before Endeavour appeared.

The tile modelling tests seemed unduly pessimistic then, but that's better
than overly optimistic!
John - 22 Aug 2007 12:38 GMT
> >>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
> >>> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
> The tile modelling tests seemed unduly pessimistic then, but that's better
> than overly optimistic!

I didnt care for that period of ratty comms either

John
Jeff Findley - 22 Aug 2007 14:38 GMT
>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
>>> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> you, but I'm breathing easier. I really never doubted that everything
> would go ok, but there is always that lingering doubt.

I watched a bit of the post-landing press conference with the crew on CSPAN
yesterday.  One of the astronauts said something like, they had complete
confidence in the TPS since the engineers said the analysis and testing
looked good, and they know the engineers are conservative, so they expected
the TPS to do better than the arcjet test.

Jeff
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nmp - 21 Aug 2007 18:52 GMT
>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
>> landing. Endeavor completely intact. Seriously - it's good to see her
>> and her crew home safe and sound. Gotta admit, I was breathing shallow
>> for awhile there. Jim in Houston.
>
> Video of the broken tile looks like it did on-orbit. :-)

Right.

On orbit:

<http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/hires/s118e06229.jpg>

My screenshot from NASA TV streaming video just a little while ago, cameraman
was walking under Endeavour on the runway:

<http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/4043/holehu3.jpg>
snidely - 22 Aug 2007 01:37 GMT
> >> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
> >> landing. Endeavor completely intact. Seriously - it's good to see her
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
> <http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/4043/holehu3.jpg>

The landing turned it completely backwards!   :-p

/dps
Justa Lurker - 22 Aug 2007 01:48 GMT
>>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
>>>> landing. Endeavor completely intact. Seriously - it's good to see her
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
> The landing turned it completely backwards!   :-p

It must've gotten caught in one of those vortices.

LOL.
Jim in Houston - 22 Aug 2007 01:55 GMT

>> The landing turned it completely backwards!   :-p
>
>It must've gotten caught in one of those vortices.
>
>LOL.
ROFLOL gee, I wonder if it might re grow hair?
Jim in Houston.

Contrary to popular opinion RN does not mean Real Nerd!

Teddy Roosevelt's mother said: "Fill what is empty, empty what is full, and scratch where it itches"

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Jim in Houston - 22 Aug 2007 01:54 GMT


>> <http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/4043/holehu3.jpg>
>
>The landing turned it completely backwards!   :-p
>
>/dps

Isn't it amazing what space flight will do?
Jim in Houston.

Contrary to popular opinion RN does not mean Real Nerd!

Teddy Roosevelt's mother said: "Fill what is empty, empty what is full, and scratch where it itches"

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Jeff Findley - 22 Aug 2007 14:44 GMT
> On orbit:
>
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> <http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/4043/holehu3.jpg>

Thanks for this link.  This is the picture I've been looking for.

Let's add to this the following images from the arcjet tests:

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/186656main_arc_jet_damage_test1.jpg

It certainly does show that the arcjet test was very conservative compared
to the actual flight article.  Great job by the engineers doing the analysis
and testing to show that a patch job wouldn't be necessary.

Jeff
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snidely - 22 Aug 2007 22:30 GMT
On Aug 22, 6:44 am, "Jeff Findley" <jeff.find...@ugs.nojunk.com>
[...]
[nmp:]
> > My screenshot from NASA TV streaming video just a little while ago,
> > cameraman
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> Thanks for this link.  This is the picture I've been looking for.

NASA's hidef image is up at <http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/
187279main_07pd2305.jpg>

Looks like 1 more piece of the black coating flaked off during
rentry.  The extent of damage to the aluminum underpinnings is in the
"not visible to the untrained eye" range.

> Let's add to this the following images from the arcjet tests:
>
> http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/186656main_arc_jet_damage_test1.jpg

I'd like to find the individual shots in hidef; gotta schedule some
browse time on the NASA image servers.

/dps
TimK - 22 Aug 2007 22:44 GMT
>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
>> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> Video of the broken tile looks like it did on-orbit. :-)

I was under it today and there was no charring even on the felt.
nmp - 23 Aug 2007 00:16 GMT
>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
>>> landing. Endeavor completely intact. Seriously - it's good to see her
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
> I was under it today and there was no charring even on the felt.

What does it mean? Does it mean that it doesn't even get too hot there?

And what material is this "felt", precisely?
Jorge R. Frank - 23 Aug 2007 00:21 GMT
>>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
>>>> landing. Endeavor completely intact. Seriously - it's good to see her
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
> What does it mean? Does it mean that it doesn't even get too hot there?

It means (assuming the CFD analysis was correct - and events seem to
indicate that) that the damaged tiles absorbed most of the heat before
it got to the base of the cavity.

> And what material is this "felt", precisely?

Nomex. It's used in both the filler bar (which fills the gaps between
the tiles) and the strain isolation pads (which bind the tiles to the
structure).
TimK - 23 Aug 2007 00:39 GMT
>>>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
>>>>> landing. Endeavor completely intact. Seriously - it's good to see her
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> tiles) and the strain isolation pads (which bind the tiles to the
> structure).

The weirdest thing is to watch a tile tech "wiggle" a tile on its felt...
TimK - 23 Aug 2007 00:40 GMT
> What does it mean? Does it mean that it doesn't even get too hot there?

It means don't trust the news.
Jim in Houston - 23 Aug 2007 02:55 GMT

>> Video of the broken tile looks like it did on-orbit. :-)
>
>I was under it today and there was no charring even on the felt.

That's great news Tim, thanks for sharing that with us.
Jim in Houston.

Contrary to popular opinion RN does not mean Real Nerd!

Teddy Roosevelt's mother said: "Fill what is empty, empty what is full, and scratch where it itches"

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John Doe - 22 Aug 2007 03:46 GMT
> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.

It is a great relief. the alternative would have probably resulted in a
dramatic change at NASA (probably shutting down manned programme and
perhaps even criminal charges against those who decided against patching
the hole).

It would be most interesting to get a body similar to the CAIB to look
into how the decision to NOT patch the hole was made and whether it
really was the right decision.

Such a group would also see the real "confidence levels" that the hole
would not cause problems as opposed to the PR condifence level expressed
at press briefings.

And it was still a missed opportunity to test the goo and test how far
under the belly comms could reach. (or try the comms from station or
whatever). Perhaps the station arm should be fitted with an antenna so
it could provide coverage for such work.

Yes, a big sigh of relief.

BTW, as it flew over Mexico, was the Shuttle still way higher than Dean?
John - 22 Aug 2007 04:34 GMT
> > To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
> > A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 20 lines]
>
> BTW, as it flew over Mexico, was the Shuttle still way higher than Dean?

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY higher
Derek Lyons - 22 Aug 2007 08:30 GMT
>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!!
>> A flawless landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>perhaps even criminal charges against those who decided against patching
>the hole).

And you'd probably be masturbating with glee while gloating over the
images of debris.

>It would be most interesting to get a body similar to the CAIB to look
>into how the decision to NOT patch the hole was made and whether it
>really was the right decision.

I usually somewhat mistrust studies made 'after the fact' and not
under the stress the participants were under.  Hindsight is always
20/20.

D.
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John Doe - 22 Aug 2007 17:12 GMT
Some idiot hater wrote:

> And you'd probably be masturbating with glee while gloating over the
> images of debris.

You have terrible attitudes. I have never wished for a breakup. Why do
you insist on polluting your posts with such absurdities ? It has the
opposite effect of what you desire: it makes YOU look infantile instead
of trying to discredit the person you intended to discredit.

> I usually somewhat mistrust studies made 'after the fact' and not
> under the stress the participants were under.  Hindsight is always
> 20/20.

CAIB found serious flaws in NASA decision making/culture. I think that a
in inquiry would be most interesting to see if this decision to not fix
the tiles was made with the same decision making flaws or whether there
have truly been changes within NASA.

Just because Endeavour landed safely doesn't mean that the decision to
not patch it was the correct one and that the process to reach that
decision was the correct one.  Lets say that the engineering showed the
hole to be truly borderline, and that NASA decided to not patch it and
risk it. This is quite different from engineering saying it was a no
brainer with a wide safety margin and NASA then deciding a patch really
was not necessary.

But there is also another aspect to this. This was an opportunity for
NASA to test repairs, and survey which areas of the shuttle have no
comms (of that is truly the case).  And NASA decided to forego that
great opportunity, generating excuses, and the fear here is that next
time, there will already be reasons to NOT patch it and even less
willingness to patch a hole and the next time, it may be fatal.
Derek Lyons - 22 Aug 2007 18:00 GMT
>Some idiot hater wrote:
>
>> And you'd probably be masturbating with glee while gloating over the
>> images of debris.
>
>You have terrible attitudes. I have never wished for a breakup.

Day after wearying day we are treated to your gleeful posts explaining
how NASA is really wrong _this time_, astronauts are going to _die_,
and NASA will finally be held to account.  Again and again we treated
to your scenarios of death and destruction.

_Something_ is wrong with someone who repeatedly, and in utter
defiance of facts, keeps insisting that death and breakup is imminent.

>Why do you insist on polluting your posts with such absurdities ?

A question you might ask the face in the mirror.

D.
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Jeff Findley - 22 Aug 2007 18:58 GMT
> Some idiot hater wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> the tiles was made with the same decision making flaws or whether there
> have truly been changes within NASA.

From what I've read, changes have been made.  From what I've read, JSC
Engineering believed that a fix should have been attempted in order to
prevent damage to the shuttle which could delay processing for the next
flight by several weeks.  Also, I read that someone else (a contractor
employee?) was concerned that the hit to the tiles could have loosened them
enough that an entire tile (or tiles) might come off.

The sort of open dialog that was going on within NASA and its contractors
about this issue is something that I don't think happened with the foam/RCC
hit on Columbia.

> Just because Endeavour landed safely doesn't mean that the decision to not
> patch it was the correct one and that the process to reach that decision
> was the correct one.

Why do you say that?  Look at the in orbit and post flight picture of the
tiles:

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2007/tile.damage.lrg.jpg

It certainly appears that the arcjet test that was done was conservative
since it showed a lot more damage to the tiles and the arcjet test showed
that the shuttle's structure would not be damaged.

> Lets say that the engineering showed the hole to be truly borderline, and
> that NASA decided to not patch it and risk it. This is quite different
> from engineering saying it was a no brainer with a wide safety margin and
> NASA then deciding a patch really was not necessary.

This is a hypothetical.  Who can say what would have happened in that case?

> But there is also another aspect to this. This was an opportunity for NASA
> to test repairs, and survey which areas of the shuttle have no comms (of
> that is truly the case).  And NASA decided to forego that great
> opportunity, generating excuses, and the fear here is that next time,
> there will already be reasons to NOT patch it and even less willingness to
> patch a hole and the next time, it may be fatal.

They decided to leave it alone because the analysis and testing showed that
it was safe to do so and attempting a repair would introduce its own risks.

I'm reminded of the Hippocratic Oath.

Jeff
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Kurt Kemp - 23 Aug 2007 15:47 GMT
On the point you make when you said :

"But there is also another aspect to this. This was an opportunity for
> NASA to test repairs, and survey which areas of the shuttle have no comms
> (of that is truly the case).  And NASA decided to forego that great
> opportunity, generating excuses, and the fear here is that next time,
> there will already be reasons to NOT patch it and even less willingness to
> patch a hole and the next time, it may be fatal."

I completely agree with you. Just because something works doesn't mean it
works right. For all anyone knows until a full investigation is done NASA
may have just got lucky again.

I wonder how many times on how many flights (manned and unmanned) there have
been near misses where the crew or vehicle came close to destruction. I also
wonder is it possible that there have been hundreds if not thousands of
times where no one, not even the astronauts themselves were aware that such
destruction almost occured.

My point here in asking this question is this....just because we do not see
a danger does not mean it is not there.  At the same time though it does not
mean that we should not be looking for the danger. It does not even mean
that we can not see the danger. More often than not NASA can spot problems
it's true. The problem with NASA comes in when NASA becomes complacent. Yes
it is true that if it isn't broke then there is no need to fix it, but NASA
always needs to stay sharp and alert. To me that sounds like a lot to ask a
government agency to do.

It does seem on the surface of this issue though that you are so right. NASA
should have turned this situation into one where they could have gained
crucial real time data ....data and information on how to do these repairs
in real life. Now they have lost an opportunity to learn something that may
save future lives down the road. I bet NASA will be wishing they'd done the
spacewalk repair to the tiles if on a future flight they have even worse
damage that threatens the safety of ship and crew.

One thing NASA needs to get good at is taking a little risk for the sake of
knowledge if that knowledge is going to be the kind of knowledge they will
need to go to the moon or other planets and live there. If they can not
start to have the pioneer spirit of long ago when our forefathers came to
America then how the hell are we going to go to Mars. We can not just wing
it and if a little bump in the road appears we head back home to Earth from
Mars. If we did we'd surely never go there ever again. Our Mars and moon
programs of the future  need to look a lot less like how we did things in
the past and we need to start running our space program like it's about the
future.

I know I went on a rant there, but I will stop for now. It's just that what
you said got me started thinking and when I do that well......just watch
out. And if you think that's bad you should try talking to me. My ideas fly
out my mouth faster than the speed of sound. Come to think of it maybe
that's why nobody ever listens.

Take care!
Kurt

> Some idiot hater wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 28 lines]
> there will already be reasons to NOT patch it and even less willingness to
> patch a hole and the next time, it may be fatal.
Brian Heil - 24 Aug 2007 18:54 GMT
>On the point you make when you said :
>
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>works right. For all anyone knows until a full investigation is done NASA
>may have just got lucky again.

You are missing the point here.  They did a full investigation, they
had reams of data, and they performed several different types of
tests.  The CFD tests said no danger to crew, slight risk of
repairable damage.  The arc jet test told them essentially the same
thing, and past experience said these 2 tests converged and were
reflected in actual flight performance.  This is not your father's
Columbia accident.

When they weighed the risks of flying the vehicle back with known
conditions that 3 seperate tests said would not result in loss of
vehicle and crew against doing something they had never tested before,
and had very little data about the conclusion was pretty clear.  This
is how engineering is done - yes, even when crewed vehicles are
involved.  

Next time (if there is one) there is a problem with the TPS they will
run the same rigorous process.  If they answer comes back LOCV without
a repair, but with a repair the analysis says you'll get back ok they
have another decision to make.  They just might do the repair then,
and fly back un-manned  to see how the repair works.  You aren't
risking much  because you already know the vehicle is toast without
the repair.  The big question is do you trust the repair to fly back
with the crew onboard.

By doing the repair and 'testing' with a crew onboard they would be
much closer to exhibiting the pre-columbia attitude then what they
decided this time.

>I wonder how many times on how many flights (manned and unmanned) there have
>been near misses where the crew or vehicle came close to destruction. I also
>wonder is it possible that there have been hundreds if not thousands of
>times where no one, not even the astronauts themselves were aware that such
>destruction almost occured.

I wonder how many times you've come close to destruction walking down
the street, or driving your car, and didn't know it?  Do you spend
your life looking over your shoulder worrying?  Nope, you use your
past experience that you can (for the most part)
drive/walk/bike/whatever down the street without getting squashed.
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Jeff Findley - 22 Aug 2007 14:47 GMT
>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
>> landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> perhaps even criminal charges against those who decided against patching
> the hole).

If you look at the post-flight damage to the TPS, it's pretty clear that the
engineers were conservative in their conclusions, since the arcjet test
shows a lot more damage to the tiles than the actual flown tiles.

As I and others have said before, this is quite a bit different than
Columbia because this time the engineers based their opinions on solid
analysis and testing rather than the unfounded assumption that foam can't
damage RCC because it's "tougher" than the tiles.

Jeff
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Jim in Houston - 22 Aug 2007 17:46 GMT
>>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
>>> landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
>
>Jeff
The part of the quote attributed to me, after the word intact in the
first paragraph is not mine, it came from someone else. I think it was
John Doe, but I am not sure.

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snidely - 22 Aug 2007 20:17 GMT
On Aug 22, 9:46 am, Jim in Houston
<nospamjamesgoo...@sbcglobal.netnospam> wrote:
> On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 09:47:09 -0400, "Jeff Findley"
[...]
> >>> To all of you Shannon busters and gloom and doomers. Bah!!! A flawless
> >>> landing. Endeavor completely intact.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> >> perhaps even criminal charges against those who decided against patching
> >> the hole).

[...]
> The part of the quote attributed to me, after the word intact in the
> first paragraph is not mine, it came from someone else. I think it was
> John Doe, but I am not sure.

As far as I can tell, Jeff correctly attributed it to John Doe.  Any
confusion is solely from some slightly awry white space.

As you can see from my inclusions above, the attribution tree was
intact when it reached me.

/dps
Jim in Houston - 22 Aug 2007 20:59 GMT
>On Aug 22, 9:46 am, Jim in Houston
><nospamjamesgoo...@sbcglobal.netnospam> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 20 lines]
>
>/dps
That's fine. I just wanted clarity about who said what and to whom.
But, you are correct. I guess I'm a bit paranoid about such things.
Jim in Houston.

Contrary to popular opinion RN does not mean Real Nerd!

Teddy Roosevelt's mother said: "Fill what is empty, empty what is full, and scratch where it itches"

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snidely - 22 Aug 2007 22:31 GMT
On Aug 22, 12:59 pm, Jim in Houston
<nospamjamesgoo...@sbcglobal.netnospam> wrote:
[...]
> That's fine. I just wanted clarity about who said what and to whom.
> But, you are correct. I guess I'm a bit paranoid about such things.

Hey, this is usenet ... even with footnotes, somebody *will* get it
wrong   ;-}

/dps
Jim in Houston - 23 Aug 2007 02:54 GMT
>On Aug 22, 12:59 pm, Jim in Houston
><nospamjamesgoo...@sbcglobal.netnospam> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>
>/dps
So true, you know Al Gore and I developed Usenet.....
Jim in Houston.

Contrary to popular opinion RN does not mean Real Nerd!

Teddy Roosevelt's mother said: "Fill what is empty, empty what is full, and scratch where it itches"

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Jim in Houston - 22 Aug 2007 17:42 GMT


>It would be most interesting to get a body similar to the CAIB to look
>into how the decision to NOT patch the hole was made and whether it
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
>
>BTW, as it flew over Mexico, was the Shuttle still way higher than Dean?
I understand more now why they didn't want to "test" the goo. An
uneven surface which would've been caused by the goo, would've
produced higher heating due to higher drag and earlier heating (I
think I have heard that referred to as tripping the boundary layer).
And I disagree with another review board. The last thing we need is
another bunch of egotists digging into the Manned Space flight
Program. The CAIB, IMHO, did more to damage the Program than the
Challenger and Columbia disaster combined. I don't mind taking another
look at things, but I really think an internal review board would be
better and faster than a board of "independent" reviewers.
And about Dean, yes they were IIRC above 100,000 feet crossing that
part of Mexico and the Caribbean.

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