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Space Forum / Shuttle / January 2007Atmosphere temperature warming and orbits
How much are LEO orbits affected by global temperature changes ? I,.E. if global temperatures rise by 1 degree, will the atmosphere expand sufficiently to change drag for orbits such as the ISS ? Or would such changes be absolutely trivial in terms of air density at LEO orbits ? I ask this as a purely theoretical question. > How much are LEO orbits affected by global temperature changes ? > > I,.E. if global temperatures rise by 1 degree, will the atmosphere > expand sufficiently to change drag for orbits such as the ISS ? Or > would such changes be absolutely trivial in terms of air density at > LEO orbits ? The latter. Atmospheric density at LEO altitudes is dominated by the sun.  SignatureJRF Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail, check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and think one step ahead of IBM. > The latter. Atmospheric density at LEO altitudes is dominated by the sun. Also, increase in CO2 is predicted to *cool* the upper atmosphere (upper stratosphere and mesosphere) by enabling it to more effectively radiate heat. So the net effect could be to reduce the density in earth orbit by pulling the base of the thermosphere down. Paul >> The latter. Atmospheric density at LEO altitudes is dominated by the sun. > > Also, increase in CO2 is predicted to *cool* the upper atmosphere > (upper stratosphere and mesosphere) by enabling it to more effectively > radiate heat. So the net effect could be to reduce the density > in earth orbit by pulling the base of the thermosphere down. Still, it would be an interesting research project to analyze available data of satellites orbits and to check for systematic changes in orbit decay not explained by solar cycles over the last 20 or 30 years. There should be more than enough data available to do that. Jochem Signature"A designer knows he has arrived at perfection not when there is no longer anything to add, but when there is no longer anything to take away." - Antoine de Saint-Exupery |
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