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Space Forum / Shuttle / May 2006Nearby Supernova & space program
No, I'm not talking about the Sun going supernova, just a nearby star. This is not a rare event at all, they have been recorded in history about every hundred years, possibly including the Star of Bethlehem. A hundred years ago a nearby supernova meant a really bright star, visible in the daytime, but hurt no one. Then we invented electronics and the world is different. We see disaster movies about a meteor that might hit earth every 50,000 years or a supervolcano equally probable or even a super earthquake the likes of which has not been seen in recorded history, but no nearby supernova movies even though they are more common; maybe because no one will bleed from the direct effects. A nearby supernova will have 3 major effects; 1) It will kill the manned space program for many years. Any space station would have to be abandoned, outposts on the moon would be abandoned and astronauts on mars would be killed. There is a slim possibility that an outpost on an asteroid might survive if it were buried deep enough but resupply would be a major problem. 2) We would lose a lot of satellites and this would put a MAJOR crimp in communications & credit cards. The satellites could not be simply replaced, they would have to be re-engineered from scratch and possibly the launch vehicle computers & navigation as well. It would take years to replace even the essential satellites. Geosyncronous satellites would presumably fare worst, goodby satellite TV. What would happen to the GPS system? 3) If close enough, the cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere will generate EMP so there is the chance of losing ground based electronics and the power grid. That would make recovery a real problem. The telephone system should be less effected and the fibre optics grids should be unaffected.  SignatureFree men own guns, slaves don't www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/5357/ On a pleasant day while strolling in sci.space.shuttle, a person by the name of Nick Hull exclaimed: > 1) It will kill the manned space program for many years. Any space > station would have to be abandoned, outposts on the moon would be > abandoned and astronauts on mars would be killed. There is a slim > possibility that an outpost on an asteroid might survive if it were > buried deep enough but resupply would be a major problem. If it is this severe, will the atmosphere really protect us fully? > 2) We would lose a lot of satellites and this would put a MAJOR crimp > in communications & credit cards. That's true, but I have the feeling that a lot of bandwidth is now carried by fibre. Losing all the satellites would just mean lighting up more fibre, I guess. It's faster anyway. Signatureaaronl at consultant dot com For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert. - Arthur C. Clarke Solar flares have caused power grid troubles on earth in the past, so a nearby supernova wouldnt be a good thing. a pulsar might get pointed our way and steralize the earth. theres lots of ways to die and we all do eventually:( We really should be building the space infrastructure to protect us from some of these events. like moving a errant comet or asteroid, planetary killers should be taken seriously before they appear on our door step! personally I think each and every one of us should prepare for disasters like the bird flu or other major problem since we KNOW thanks to katrina our government is incapable of helping and really doesnt give a dam..... see photos of new orleans lately? many still show destroyed neighborhoods with no sign of rebuilding and debris littered streets, over half the population still elsewhere. next time it could be your neighborhood thats being ignored:( NOTE: We do havce trillions and lives to waste in Iraq:( Fighting a endless war thats already lost.... we dont have our priorties in order at all > we dont have our priorties in order at all Oh the priorities are in order, just not *our* order... > No, I'm not talking about the Sun going supernova, just a nearby star. > This is not a rare event at all, they have been recorded in history > about every hundred years, possibly including the Star of Bethlehem. A > hundred years ago a nearby supernova meant a really bright star, visible > in the daytime, but hurt no one. Then we invented electronics and the > world is different. Any supernova that would zap our gadgets would kill us too. > We see disaster movies about a meteor that might hit earth every 50,000 > years or a supervolcano equally probable or even a super earthquake the > likes of which has not been seen in recorded history, but no nearby > supernova movies even though they are more common; maybe because no one > will bleed from the direct effects. Yes, you bleed when the ozone layer is gone. And go hungry and freeze. > A nearby supernova will have 3 major effects; > 1) It will kill the manned space program for many years. Any space > station would have to be abandoned, outposts on the moon would be > abandoned and astronauts on mars would be killed. There is a slim > possibility that an outpost on an asteroid might survive if it were > buried deep enough but resupply would be a major problem. It might kill the space program indirectly, because of economic trouble. My guess is it won't. Space is too important to abandon even in a depression - comm, weather, etc. Outposts on the Moon & Mars would probably do OK since they would be mostly underground. If they would be semi-autonomous, astronauts would do just fine until things get stable again. > 2) We would lose a lot of satellites and this would put a MAJOR crimp > in communications & credit cards. The satellites could not be simply [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > would presumably fare worst, goodby satellite TV. What would happen to > the GPS system? Communications won't be severely affected. Existing land infrastructure can probably take most of the load. So we just do without sat TV and phones for a while, sucks but doesn't kill, as the saying goes it might make us stronger - mentally :-)). I don't have any info on this but I would bet the military have a few replacement satelites in store. Maybe they would agree to carry CNN (more likely Fox). > 3) If close enough, the cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere will > generate EMP so there is the chance of losing ground based electronics > and the power grid. That would make recovery a real problem. The > telephone system should be less effected and the fibre optics grids > should be unaffected. Gamma rays cause EMP. > Free men own guns, slaves don't - YEAH THEY DO This addresses the effects of supernovae: http://stupendous.rit.edu/richmond/answers/snrisks.txt > Any supernova that would zap our gadgets would kill us too. Not likely, EMP zaps our gadgets but doesn't hurt us. > Yes, you bleed when the ozone layer is gone. And go hungry and freeze. Cosmic rays shouldn't hurt the ozone layer, we have had many supernovas visible without telescope. > It might kill the space program indirectly, because of economic > trouble. My guess is it won't. Space is too important to abandon even > in a depression - comm, weather, etc. Space is too important to abandon but it might take some re-engineering to replace zapped sattelites. > Outposts on the Moon & Mars would probably do OK since they would be > mostly underground. If they would be semi-autonomous, astronauts would > do just fine until things get stable again. If underground & autonomous the outposts would survive but the astronauts won't be coming home. > Gamma rays cause EMP. IIRC EMP is caused by charged particles > > Free men own guns, slaves don't - > YEAH THEY DO Where? > This addresses the effects of supernovae: > http://stupendous.rit.edu/richmond/answers/snrisks.txt He admits to little info on energetic particles (cosmic rays) which I would guess would be the worst danger since cosmic rays are very ionizing. SignatureFree men own guns, slaves don't www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/5357/ > > Any supernova that would zap our gadgets would kill us too. > [quoted text clipped - 16 lines] > > Where? Off topic but archaeological digs in South Carolina indicated that some slaves had guns. Also many "slaves" of Saddam's government had assault weapons for home protection. > > > > Free men own guns, slaves don't - > > > YEAH THEY DO [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > slaves had guns. Also many "slaves" of Saddam's government had assault > weapons for home protection. Slaves can possess guns when their master SignatureFree men own guns, slaves don't www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/5357/ You are a happy soul today! Firstly, how near is near? Surely the effect would be relatively short lived, or there would be problems now. I do agree that radiation is a problem nobody has solved. There is the deflection idea, but that would require huge amounts of power and a very localised magnetic field to work, or as you say, the screening idea, not practical for people who may be in transit in ships. I don't know anyone who would actually stick their nose out and say it won't happen, but should that stop us doing what we do? I have for some time been worried about the increasing reliance on space communications and indeed single carriers for everything, like voip etc, as they are vulnerable to a one time attack, be it malicious or natural, but I'm not in control, and I'd expect humans would muddle through. Brian SignatureBrian Gaff....Note, this account does not accept Bcc: email. graphics are great, but the blind can't hear them Email: briang1@blueyonder.co.uk ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ > No, I'm not talking about the Sun going supernova, just a nearby star. > This is not a rare event at all, they have been recorded in history [quoted text clipped - 29 lines] > telephone system should be less effected and the fibre optics grids > should be unaffected. > You are a happy soul today! > > Firstly, how near is near? Surely the effect would be relatively short > lived, or there would be problems now. I have seen guesstimates that the effect could last decades. How near? I'd like to know too. SignatureFree men own guns, slaves don't www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/5357/ > No, I'm not talking about the Sun going supernova, just a nearby star. > This is not a rare event at all, they have been recorded in history [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > supernova movies even though they are more common; maybe because no one > will bleed from the direct effects. Write script. How hero in such movie is going to save earth from supernova? Hint- create anti-gravity to release earth from sun's gravity and let earth fly in space. > A nearby supernova will have 3 major effects; > 1) It will kill the manned space program for many years. Any space [quoted text clipped - 20 lines] > Free men own guns, slaves don't > www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/5357/ |
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