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Space Forum / Shuttle / February 2006



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8 flights in 15 months? IMPOSSIBLE!

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Bob Haller - 22 Feb 2006 15:00 GMT
NASA aims for 8 shuttle launches in 15 months
NASA is aiming to launch eight shuttle missions in 15 months between
May and September 2007, assuming the agency can overcome continuing
external tank foam insulation problems and other challenges.

In an all hands meeting at Kennedy Space Center last week, NASA shuttle
program manager Wayne Hale displayed a chart of notional target launch
dates that showed the agency's fast-paced plans for the resumption of
International Space Station assembly.

There are some huge caveats, however. It's unlikely NASA will be able
to meet the opening of a May 3-May 22 window for its next flight, and
its unlikely more than two missions could be launched this year.

That said, the chart showed NASA plans to launch Discovery May 3 on a
second test flight largely aimed at proving out post-Columbia safety
modifications.

Construction of the half-built station then would resume with the July
1 launch of Atlantis and a portside segment of the outpost's skeletal
truss.

The follow-on flights would include an Oct. 1 flight of Endeavour with
another portside truss segment, and the launch Dec. 7 of a starboard
truss aboard Atlantis.

Next year, a starboard truss would be launched on Endeavour on March
15, and another would be lofted on Discovery on May 3.

A connecting node that would enable NASA to add European and Japanese
science laboratory modules would be launched June 14 on Atlantis.

Then a payload still to be named -- presumably an international partner
laboratory -- would be launched Aug. 23 on Endeavour.

The launch sequence and dates are the same as those shown in an
internal shuttle launch schedule published in The Flame Trench on Nov.
30, 2005.

That manifest also showed NASA aims to finish the station and fly a
final servicing mission to the Hubble Space Telescope by August 2009, a
full year ahead of the Sept. 30, 2010 retirement date for the shuttle
fleet.
Skylon - 22 Feb 2006 15:12 GMT
Jan 1991 - Mar 1992: 8 Flights

Mar 1992 - April 1993 - 9 flights

July 1993 - Oct. 1994 - 10 flights

I'd rather not keep going. You can do the rest of the research
yourself. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Probably.

-A.L.
Bob Haller - 22 Feb 2006 15:24 GMT
that flight rate was before the downsizing of the workforce, and tended
to be schedule driven rather than safety driven....

besides it was with 4 orbiters not 3 and atlantis about to be
permanetely grounded

again today that rate isnt possiible.
Skylon - 23 Feb 2006 05:14 GMT
> that flight rate was before the downsizing of the workforce, and tended
> to be schedule driven rather than safety driven....
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> again today that rate isnt possiible.

You are aware the usual shuttle flight rate was maintained with 3
orbiters, as one was usually undergoing maintenance?

Also, if I wanted to list a "schedule driven" statistic I would have
shown you pre-Challenger or ISS era flight rates. For what was known
about safety conditions, and each mission being an independent sortie,
its a good guage of what's possible. Likely? No. But possible.

When RTF occurs NASA will have three orbiters, and that will likely be
the most heavy press of flights. If 18 flights are planned, and 5 are
slated for Atlantis that leaves 13 for Discovery and Endeavour.

I dunno if they can do all 18, but if STS 121 goes well, I'd be
surprised if they don't at least come close to the planned 18. My
money, with potential hangups would be between 10 and 15 flights
completed. However, that's a wild-assed guess.

-A.L.
Bob Haller - 23 Feb 2006 10:45 GMT
If they are doing their safety job right a long list of issues will be
uncovered, each requiring time to investigate and fix.

this will add constant delays
 
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