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Space Forum / Shuttle / February 2006



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How serious is the May window?

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Jim Oberg - 21 Feb 2006 04:10 GMT
Yeah, I -KNOW- everybody is
supposed to be 'working toward' a
mid-May liftoff, but then why are
the working troops I talk with all so
skeptical that it can -- or even
SHOULD - be done? Any other
'straws in the space wind'?
Ten Quidado - 21 Feb 2006 04:47 GMT
> Yeah, I -KNOW- everybody is
> supposed to be 'working toward' a
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> SHOULD - be done? Any other
> 'straws in the space wind'?

I'm betting on August.
Jorge R. Frank - 21 Feb 2006 05:01 GMT
"Ten Quidado" <TenQuidado@delespana.net> wrote in news:kXwKf.2381$VI6.1288
@newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net:

>> Yeah, I -KNOW- everybody is
>> supposed to be 'working toward' a
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> I'm betting on August.

I'd bet against it. The launch windows for the rest of the year are May 3-
22, July 1-19, August 29-Sept 14, Oct 26-30, and Dec 23-27. If they don't
launch in May or July, there's not much August window available.

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John Doe - 21 Feb 2006 06:42 GMT
> I'd bet against it. The launch windows for the rest of the year are May 3-
> 22, July 1-19, August 29-Sept 14, Oct 26-30, and Dec 23-27.

How many weeks prior to launch must the stack be at the pad for
loading/prepapartions ? 3 or 4 ?

How long does it take to take the shuttle in its current state and have
it fully stacked and ready to roll out from the VAB ?

I would assume NASA would want a target between may 10 and 15. This
gives NASA room to fix minor glitches after a scrub (as well as weather scrubs).

So the question is: for a theoretical May 12th launch, what is the date
where NASA must begin the actual work to start moving hardware and
assembly it in the VAB ?

I suspect that in a couple of weeks, it should become more clear if NASA
will try a may launch.
Chris Bennetts - 21 Feb 2006 07:52 GMT
> How many weeks prior to launch must the stack be at the pad for
> loading/prepapartions ? 3 or 4 ?

About that, generally closer to 4 IIRC.

> How long does it take to take the shuttle in its current state and have
> it fully stacked and ready to roll out from the VAB ?

The solids aren't finished yet, so they'll need to be done, along with
the ET. I don't know what state the orbiter's in. From orbiter rollover
to rollout usually takes about a week.

> I would assume NASA would want a target between may 10 and 15. This
> gives NASA room to fix minor glitches after a scrub (as well as weather scrubs).
>
> So the question is: for a theoretical May 12th launch, what is the date
> where NASA must begin the actual work to start moving hardware and
> assembly it in the VAB ?

Stacking of the solids started months ago. For a May 12 launch, I'd
expect to see Discovery roll over around late March to (more likely)
early April.

> I suspect that in a couple of weeks, it should become more clear if NASA
> will try a may launch.

If Discovery hasn't been rolled over by mid-April, she won't fly in May.

I still wouldn't completely rule out Discovery's next trip being aboard
an SCA rather than a shuttle stack.

--Chris
Jim Oberg - 21 Feb 2006 14:13 GMT
> I still wouldn't completely rule out Discovery's next trip being aboard an
> SCA rather than a shuttle stack.

Since there are no longer any shuttle processing
facilities apart from KSC, I'm assuming you are
referring to museum disposal?
Chris Bennetts - 22 Feb 2006 09:31 GMT
>>I still wouldn't completely rule out Discovery's next trip being aboard an
>>SCA rather than a shuttle stack.
>
> Since there are no longer any shuttle processing
> facilities apart from KSC, I'm assuming you are
> referring to museum disposal?

That's what I had in mind.

--Chris
Katipo - 21 Feb 2006 20:09 GMT
> "Ten Quidado" <TenQuidado@delespana.net> wrote in news:kXwKf.2381$VI6.1288
> @newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net:
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> 22, July 1-19, August 29-Sept 14, Oct 26-30, and Dec 23-27. If they don't
> launch in May or July, there's not much August window available.

Exactly how do launch windows? My understanding it is the time when the
distance the craft needs to travel to reach its destination is the shortest.
Is that all there is to it? How come there are so few windows for the
shuttle?

Katipo
Joe Delphi - 21 Feb 2006 22:56 GMT
> Exactly how do launch windows? My understanding it is the time when the
> distance the craft needs to travel to reach its destination is the shortest.
> Is that all there is to it? How come there are so few windows for the
> shuttle?
>
> Katipo

I think it also has to do with the amount of sunlight available at the
Trans-Atlantic abort sites.

JD
Greg D. Moore (Strider) - 22 Feb 2006 01:27 GMT
> > Exactly how do launch windows? My understanding it is the time when the
> > distance the craft needs to travel to reach its destination is the
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> I think it also has to do with the amount of sunlight available at the
> Trans-Atlantic abort sites.

Among other things.

For at least the next few launches, they want the launch to be in sunlight
for camera purposes.

But they also have limits on the position of the station and sunlight on the
station, etc.

> JD
Jorge R. Frank - 22 Feb 2006 03:43 GMT
>> "Ten Quidado" <TenQuidado@delespana.net> wrote in
>> news:kXwKf.2381$VI6.1288 @newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net:
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
> the distance the craft needs to travel to reach its destination is the
> shortest. Is that all there is to it?

There's a little more to it. :-) A launch window is actually a composite
of several constraints:

1) Rendezvous planar window - roughly speaking, the target orbit plane is
fixed in space while the Earth rotates under it. There are only two times
each day when the launch site passes through the orbit plane, one on the
south-to-north leg of the orbit and the other on the north-to-south. The
second one isn't used by the shuttle for range safety reasons; it would
cause the ET and SRBs to come down in inconvenient places.

2) Rendezvous phase window - once you've launched in-plane with the
target, you have to catch up to it. How long that takes depends on where
the target is within that orbit plane. If a vehicle has limits on phasing
capability, it may not be able to launch in every planar window. The
shuttle orbiter doesn't rendezvous until flight day 3 or 4 so it has
enough phasing capability to launch into any planar window.

The two constraints above apply to any rendezvous flight, and since all
future shuttle flights will rendezvous with something (either ISS or
HST), they always apply. For the shuttle, they don't affect whether you
can launch on a particular day, just what time of day you can launch
(planar window) and how long the window is open (both).

For all shuttle-ISS flights, a third constraint applies.

3) Beta constraint - beta is the angle between the orbit plane and the
line of sight to the sun. It determines how much of the orbit is lit and
how much is in the shadow of the Earth. That affects thermal control of
both orbiter and ISS, and ISS solar power generation. It turns out that
if the beta angle is greater than sixty degrees while an orbiter is
docked to ISS, it's impossible to find an orientation for the stack that
satisfies all three constraints, so NASA doesn't launch on those dates.
This constraint isn't very limiting; it creates "cutouts" in the launch
window every 2-3 months that last 2-3 weeks. These cutouts fall during
the nighttime during the summer, and during the daytime during the
winter.

> How come there are so few
> windows for the shuttle?

There are two additional constraints that apply to the shuttle Return-To-
Flight test missions:

4) Daylight launch - for photography to see if the foam-shedding problem
is fixed.

5) Lit ET separation - for photography of the ET from the orbiter's
umbilical well camera, for the same reason.

In practice, 5) is more constraining than 4). They are very limiting; in
combination with the beta cutouts, they limit shuttle launches to four
periods during the spring/summer/fall roughly two months apart lasting
roughly 2-3 weeks, with two more periods during the winter lasting maybe
a few days, if you're lucky. These two constraints go away after two
flights with no ET foam shedding above the allowable limits.

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John Doe - 22 Feb 2006 05:10 GMT
> Exactly how do launch windows? My understanding it is the time when the
> distance the craft needs to travel to reach its destination is the shortest.

Nop. Space station doesn't follow the earth's rotation. It follows an
essentially fixed circular path.

Twice a day, the earth's rotation places KSC directly under that path.
It is only when KSC is under that path that they can launch the shuttle
which can then accelerate along that path and meet with the station
travelling in exactly the same direction.

Think about 2 bowling balls.  You can throw then in intersectinbg paths,
but when they meet, they collide. You need to throw the second one to go
slightly faster and not only in the same direction, but also the same
"path" so that it will gently meet the first one and stay with it.

Due to the earth's rotation, the path of the ISS's orbit moves over the
surface of the earth at roughly 1600km/h. If the shuttle doesn't launch
at exactly the right time, it needs to compensate and that costs a lot
of fuel. Because fuel is limited, they have a narrow launch window of
about 10 minutes before and after the exact time.

Furthermore, because of geography, the shuttle can only launch in a
north-east direction. And this means that only once a day is there a
launch window where shuttle can fly north east and meet up with the ISS.

To complicate matters, the ISS's orbit actually does rotate a little bit
every day. So every day, the launch time moves by a few minutes.

Current requirements are that the shuttle launch in daytime and ET can
be photographed once in orbit while still in daylight. So this restricts
launchs to only certain periods onf the year when this is possible.
Chris Bennetts - 21 Feb 2006 09:20 GMT
> Yeah, I -KNOW- everybody is
> supposed to be 'working toward' a
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> SHOULD - be done? Any other
> 'straws in the space wind'?

I'm half a world away from the shuttle workers, so take this with a
grain of salt. My guess is that the workers are latching on to all of
the talk regarding things like bringing forward retirement, cutting the
flight rate to 1/year, the looming 2010 deadline, and the general
community feeling that the shuttle is too old and unsafe.

Additionally, there's very little good news. There's no talk of delaying
retirement by a few years if things go well, and hardly anyone is
talking up the fact that the shuttle's safety is as good as anything
else flying, etc. CEV's on the horizon, but it's still a long way off.

It must be pretty hard for a worker involved with a program with so much
negativity surrounding it to remain positive about their job. I'd be
much more surprised if you *weren't* detecting a significant level of
skepticism.

--Chris
john2375@hotmail.com - 21 Feb 2006 12:51 GMT
"I still wouldn't completely rule out Discovery's next trip being
aboard
an SCA rather than a shuttle stack"
What's that supposed to mean??

Let's say during launch, some foam falls off...end of program? Or
another year of redesigning the ET??
John Doe - 22 Feb 2006 04:16 GMT
> Let's say during launch, some foam falls off...end of program? Or
> another year of redesigning the ET??

Foam will not fall off.  NASA will probably use canned footage instead
of the live video to make sure nobody in the public sees the foam fall
off :-) :-)
John Doe - 22 Feb 2006 04:14 GMT
> the talk regarding things like bringing forward retirement, cutting the
> flight rate to 1/year, the looming 2010 deadline, and the general
> community feeling that the shuttle is too old and unsafe.
>
> Additionally, there's very little good news. There's no talk of delaying
> retirement by a few years if things go well,

Those who financially benefit from CEV spending are probably working
very hard to make sure the shuttle stands 0 chance of surviving beyond
the deadline and would even want to kill it even before that. The recent
stories about the engines further re-enforce this.

As long as shuttle is seen to be viable, the USA government could decide
to delay or cancel funding for that CEV thing.

making damned sure that the Shuttle is on its way to the graveyard
increases the odds that funding for CEV continues no matter how much
cost overruns will prop up because there just won't be any alternative.
Reed Snellenberger - 21 Feb 2006 14:19 GMT
"Jim Oberg" <jameseoberg@houston.rr.com> wrote in news:8pwKf.28428
$7y1.14428@tornado.texas.rr.com:

> Yeah, I -KNOW- everybody is
> supposed to be 'working toward' a
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> SHOULD - be done? Any other
> 'straws in the space wind'?

Isn't the pacing item on RTF-2 the ET re-work at Michoud?  Things have been
sort of quiet on that front, apart from the change in the ET contract that
was announced at the end of January.  

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to make a phone that you can just talk    | rsnellenberger
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Brian Thorn - 21 Feb 2006 19:03 GMT
>Isn't the pacing item on RTF-2 the ET re-work at Michoud?  Things have been
>sort of quiet on that front, apart from the change in the ET contract that
>was announced at the end of January.  

The ET itself is supposedly ahead of schedule. The big question seems
to be the wind tunnel testing of the PAL Ramp-less configuration. That
will be a nail-biter.

There are some new concerns with SSME contamination as well.

Brian
Herb Schaltegger - 21 Feb 2006 19:21 GMT
>> Isn't the pacing item on RTF-2 the ET re-work at Michoud?  Things have been
>> sort of quiet on that front, apart from the change in the ET contract that
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>
> Brian

I'm a lot more concerned about SSME contamination than I am about the
aerodynamics of dumping the PAL ramp.

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Herb

There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.
~ RAH

Bob Haller - 21 Feb 2006 20:17 GMT
How about the debris in the engines and fuel lines? I posted earlier
this may require taking apart the engines to remove.

That will be a big delay and the debris could cause a engine fire:( the
start of another bad day..
Bob Haller - 21 Feb 2006 23:14 GMT
I once worked for a company clearly going out of business, the most
demoralizing thing I have ever been thru.

That must be close to the conditions today, every job closer to
unemployment, budget cutting the pimary goal, lets canibalize a working
vehicle for parts.....

oh dont make any mistakes you might kill another crew.....

nasa would be far better off to upgrade the shuttle for unmanned
operations to keep it flying till the replacement vehicle is available,
it will cost a ittle more but unmanned elminates recertifying and that
saves bucks unlimited....

keeping the workers happy is important to the safety of the program
rk - 25 Feb 2006 06:46 GMT
> nasa would be far better off to upgrade the shuttle for unmanned
> operations to keep it flying till the replacement vehicle is
> available, it will cost a ittle more but unmanned elminates
> recertifying and that saves bucks unlimited....

OK, you're the expert, so I'll ask: Why is recertification not necessary
for unmanned operation?

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rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good
people."  -- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works

Terrell Miller - 22 Feb 2006 01:59 GMT
> Yeah, I -KNOW- everybody is
> supposed to be 'working toward' a
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> SHOULD - be done? Any other
> 'straws in the space wind'?

on a not entirely unrelated note...
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-02-20-atlantis-retirement_x.htm

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Bob Haller - 25 Feb 2006 23:51 GMT
OK, you're the expert, so I'll ask: Why is recertification not
necessary
for unmanned operation?

no chance of killing crew:) We have at least one extra orbiter since
atlantis is being retired early.

so we could safely cointinue flying the shuttle even beyond the 2010
date till a new heavy lift system is available
rk - 26 Feb 2006 01:20 GMT
Please stop snipping and replying to a post that wasn't the source.  Hiding
text and your answer are not effective forms of making a technical point.

<restoring context>

> nasa would be far better off to upgrade the shuttle for unmanned
> operations to keep it flying till the replacement vehicle is
> available, it will cost a ittle more but unmanned elminates
> recertifying and that saves bucks unlimited....

</restoring context>

> OK, you're the expert, so I'll ask: Why is recertification not
> necessary
> for unmanned operation?
>
> no chance of killing crew:)

I don't see the humor here.  Please explain.

Now, you're the expert, so please discuss the following.  Suppose that loss
of control of the orbiter occurs during rendezvous and docking with ISS?
Suppose that uncontrolled propulsion systems firing are made with the
orbiter docked to ISS?  I don't see how the lack of recertification will
help here.  I don't see how the lack of humans on-board will help here.  In
your answer please consider -- as just one source of information -- NESC
document RP-05-18, Shuttle Orbiter Reaction Jet Driver (RJD) Independent
Technical Assessment/Inspection Report.  Also discuss the loss of control of
a 200,000+ lb orbiter during reentry and how the lack of certification and a
crew on board to deal with malfunctions is safe.

> We have at least one extra orbiter since
> atlantis is being retired early.

Irrelevant.  Please stay on topic.


> so we could safely cointinue flying the shuttle even beyond the 2010
> date till a new heavy lift system is available

Please address safety issues including the points above.

Signature

rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works
--
rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works

Bob Haller - 26 Feb 2006 03:25 GMT
Please stop snipping and replying to a post that wasn't the source.
Hiding
text and your answer are not effective forms of making a technical
point.

<restoring context>

Bob Haller wrote:
> nasa would be far better off to upgrade the shuttle for unmanned
> operations to keep it flying till the replacement vehicle is
> available, it will cost a ittle more but unmanned elminates
> recertifying and that saves bucks unlimited....

</restoring context>

Bob Haller wrote:
> OK, you're the expert, so I'll ask: Why is recertification not
> necessary
> for unmanned operation?

> no chance of killing crew:)

I don't see the humor here.  Please explain.

Now, you're the expert, so please discuss the following.  Suppose that
loss
of control of the orbiter occurs during rendezvous and docking with
ISS?
Suppose that uncontrolled propulsion systems firing are made with the
orbiter docked to ISS?  I don't see how the lack of recertification
will
help here.  I don't see how the lack of humans on-board will help here.
In
your answer please consider -- as just one source of information --
NESC
document RP-05-18, Shuttle Orbiter Reaction Jet Driver (RJD)
Independent
Technical Assessment/Inspection Report.  Also discuss the loss of
control of
a 200,000+ lb orbiter during reentry and how the lack of certification
and a
crew on board to deal with malfunctions is safe.

> We have at least one extra orbiter since
> atlantis is being retired early.

Irrelevant.  Please stay on topic.

> so we could safely cointinue flying the shuttle even beyond the 2010
> date till a new heavy lift system is available

Please address safety issues including the points above.

--
rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good
people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works
--
rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good
people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works

Reply     Rate this post:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is this enough pasting for you???/:(

I put a smiley behind cant kill a crew, since the only reason the
shuttle is being shut down is the risk of killing another crew. Up
untill columbia most here and certinally nasa were happy to fly this
system at least another 20 years...

Revendous and docking would FIRST invoplve a soyuz crew flying over to
manually fly and dock the shuttle to the station! Docking of shuttlke
wouldnt be automated!

shuttle docked to ISS would have ISS crew in shuttle as needed

uncontrolled engine firing of shuttle can occur at any time, its one
shuttle trouble that would have to be addressed to continue past
2010..its a danger today assuming RTF ever occurs

on reentry, white sands or a off shore landing area would have to be
used to minimize danger during reentry. but even with manned reentry
there are non recoverable failure modes that a live crew cant help,
columbia is a excellent example.

Have a question for YOU, if the next flight sees more foam loss how
will the station be finished and supported till the new system is up
and running?
rk - 26 Feb 2006 03:54 GMT
You still do not deal with the loss of control of the Shuttle as you have
not eliminated the risk but simply shifted it in one case and fantasized it
away in another.  And here I thought you actually cared about safety.  You
don't.

By the way, you were so worried about the sounds on the space station.  Did
you ever relay your concerns to the authorities that they were handling it
all wrong and it was unsafe?  Or were you too much of a chicken even for
that?

Unless you have something intelligent to say, I will probably simply not
replay to any more of your babble.

> Please stop snipping and replying to a post that wasn't the source.
> Hiding
[quoted text clipped - 92 lines]
> will the station be finished and supported till the new system is
> up and running?

Signature

rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works
--
rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works

Jorge R. Frank - 26 Feb 2006 04:17 GMT
>>> OK, you're the expert, so I'll ask: Why is recertification not
>>> necessary
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> I don't see the humor here.  Please explain.

More to the point, the CAIB doesn't make an exception for it:

R9.2-1
Prior to operating the Shuttle beyond 2010, develop and conduct a vehicle
recertification at the material, component, subsystem, and system levels.
Recertification requirements should be included in the Service Life
Extension Program.

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Bob Haller - 26 Feb 2006 20:37 GMT
The safety board was talking about a MANNED vehicle, take out people
requirements can be updated.

I noticed no one addressed what will happen if the next shuttle looses
more foam?
rk - 27 Feb 2006 05:32 GMT
>The safety board was talking about a MANNED vehicle, take out people
>requirements can be updated.

The ISS is manned.

If you use your new Soyuz idea than that will be manned.

The Earth is manned for reentry.

Please show that the CAIB report referred to only manned missions.  It's
your assertion, back it up.

>I noticed no one addressed what will happen if the next shuttle looses
>more foam?

I noticed it had nothing to do with the topic at hand and is thus irrelevant
to this conversation.  Or do you just want to change the topic to avoid the
fact that your recommended plan is unsafe?

Signature

rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works

rk - 27 Feb 2006 05:30 GMT
>>>> OK, you're the expert, so I'll ask: Why is recertification not
>>>> necessary for unmanned operation?
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> system levels. Recertification requirements should be included in
> the Service Life Extension Program.

And Hallerb is an obsessive rule follower.  Why does he disregard this
recommendation which the NASA Administrator said will be followed?
Signature

rk, Just an OldEngineer
"The number of people having any connection with the project must be
restricted in an almost vicious manner.  Use a small number of good people."
-- Kelly Johnson in Skunk Works

 
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