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Alternatives to Shuttle Logistics missions

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Blurrt - 26 Nov 2005 04:24 GMT
The way to reduce the Number of Shuttle flights is to reduce the number of
logistics missions.
The options for alternative logistics transport are:
European ATV "Jules Verne"
Russian Progress
Rapidly developed commercial alternative.

NASA can easily persue additional ATV flights in 2007 by simply ordering
some vehicles from ESA on a purchase basis.
Similarly, Progress vehicle production could be ramped up to allow
additional flights in 2007, maybe even 2006.

NASA needs to fast track its commercial alternative schemes.
ATV, Kistler and t/space could take care of some of the larger logistics
payloads whilst progress or some other comercial alternative could take care
of food and water shipments.
My personal preference is to simply purchase logistics flights in blocks of
say 3 from potential commercial providers at say $300m total. Keep the money
in escrow until provider delivers. Set a reasonable price given that vehicle
has to be developed, with the understanding that future purchases will cost
less.
NASA should make this purchase in this way for at least 2 providers.
Follow-on purchases will go to the cheapest provider, again in blocks of 3.

Nathan
Jorge R. Frank - 26 Nov 2005 17:34 GMT
> The way to reduce the Number of Shuttle flights is to reduce the
> number of logistics missions.

Bit late on that idea. NASA already eliminated most of the logistics
missions when they cut the shuttle manifest from 28 flights to 19.

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Blurrt - 26 Nov 2005 23:20 GMT
> > The way to reduce the Number of Shuttle flights is to reduce the
> > number of logistics missions.
>
> Bit late on that idea. NASA already eliminated most of the logistics
> missions when they cut the shuttle manifest from 28 flights to 19.

There's still plenty of flights in the schedule for logistics MPLM.
Not a new idea of course, more a summary of ideas that should be pursued.
Brian Thorn - 26 Nov 2005 18:52 GMT
>The way to reduce the Number of Shuttle flights is to reduce the number of
>logistics missions.
>The options for alternative logistics transport are:
>European ATV "Jules Verne"
>Russian Progress

These two can't deliver ISPRs (International Standard Payload Racks)
needed for Destiny, Node 2, Columbus, and Kibo without being
redesigned to use the CBMs instead of the ports on the Russian side.
Redesign is possible, but it won't be cheap or quick, especially given
that ATV is still well over a year from first flight and Progress is
severely mass-limited.

HTV is probably the best bet, but it is still little more than
vaporware.

>Rapidly developed commercial alternative.

CBM berthing should be a requisite.

>NASA can easily persue additional ATV flights in 2007 by simply ordering
>some vehicles from ESA on a purchase basis.

Nothing easy about it. Congress doesn't like sending cash to people
who don't pay US taxes or vote in US elections.

>Similarly, Progress vehicle production could be ramped up to allow
>additional flights in 2007, maybe even 2006.

It is unclear Russa can ramp up Progress (and Soyuz) flights that
quickly. They've never achieved more than 6 per year, and that was way
back in 1980.

Brian
Blurrt - 26 Nov 2005 23:33 GMT
> >The way to reduce the Number of Shuttle flights is to reduce the number of
> >logistics missions.
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> that ATV is still well over a year from first flight and Progress is
> severely mass-limited.

The europeans seem to think they can manage with the currently designed
system. Equipment will just have to be carried thru in smaller peices then
stacked to fill a rack.  Solution should be to redesign the rack not the
vehicle!
Thinking Progress solely for food, water and mainenance equipment.

> HTV is probably the best bet, but it is still little more than
> vaporware.
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> Nothing easy about it. Congress doesn't like sending cash to people
> who don't pay US taxes or vote in US elections.

US has received approval to purchase Soyuz flights from Russia so purchasing
from other nations should not be a problem as long as it is a short term
requirement. Preference should go to a commercial provider once they come
online.

> >Similarly, Progress vehicle production could be ramped up to allow
> >additional flights in 2007, maybe even 2006.
>
> It is unclear Russa can ramp up Progress (and Soyuz) flights that
> quickly. They've never achieved more than 6 per year, and that was way
> back in 1980.

Hmm... I suspect that money is one of the main issues here. Any business can
respond to a market need provided the money is there. An additional 2
flights per year given a 2 year lead time should be possible.

I just think that the alternatives that are actually in place should be
utilised until the US has it's own solution.
And NASA can't afford the number of flights it has on the books.
Brian Thorn - 27 Nov 2005 00:29 GMT
>US has received approval to purchase Soyuz flights from Russia so purchasing
>from other nations should not be a problem as long as it is a short term
>requirement. Preference should go to a commercial provider once they come
>online.

"Should not" and "will not" are likely to be very different
propositions. Russia is not Europe (at least, not in this case).
The US does not see Russia as an economic threat. Congress is not
going to allow NASA to send cash to EADS. They have enough trouble
just letting Lockheed sell European helicopters here.

>> >Similarly, Progress vehicle production could be ramped up to allow
>> >additional flights in 2007, maybe even 2006.
>>
>> It is unclear Russa can ramp up Progress (and Soyuz) flights that
>> quickly. They've never achieved more than 6 per year, and that was way
>> back in 1980.

>Hmm... I suspect that money is one of the main issues here.

Nope. Money was no object in the glory days (or at least, it flowed
much more freely then). Russia still didn't launch that many.

>Any business can
>respond to a market need provided the money is there. An additional 2
>flights per year given a 2 year lead time should be possible.

Maybe.

>I just think that the alternatives that are actually in place should be
>utilised until the US has it's own solution.

The best one is the Space Shuttle.

>And NASA can't afford the number of flights it has on the books.

Yes it can. All it needs to do is delay CEV a year or two and perhaps
push back Shuttle retirement a year (which was a political decision
that can be aborted by politicians whenever they please.)

Brian
John Doe - 27 Nov 2005 00:55 GMT
> These two can't deliver ISPRs (International Standard Payload Racks)
> needed for Destiny, Node 2, Columbus, and Kibo without being
> redesigned to use the CBMs instead of the ports on the Russian side.

Are the racks similar to computer racks ? Instead of sending a whole
rack, why not just send the components that screw into the racks ?  For
instance, Destiny is fairly well outfitted with racks already. When an
experiment is no longer needed, instead of removing the rack, just
remove the components, leaving a naked rack which can then accept
components shipped via Progress.

Sending whole racks was neat and allowed quick install and removal while
shuttle was present. But that is now a capabiolity that will be lost
forever (unless the Japanese actually make HTV work).

(ATV is just a glorified Progress so it doesn't add any functionality to
the station, it just adds capacity).

> CBM berthing should be a requisite.

Makes one wonder why ATV wasn't designed for CBMs.

> >NASA can easily persue additional ATV flights in 2007 by simply ordering
> >some vehicles from ESA on a purchase basis.

Not sure they could ramp up production of ATV much more. The shuttle is
a REAL loss of functionality. No amount of glorifying the
apollo-on-steroids CEV will make up for the functionality of the
shuttle. Shuttle is the versatile space truck.

NASA probably should team up with the japanese and make sure that HTV
actually becomes real and functional. At least will woudl provide
upmass. What woudl then be missing is downmass to return experiments and
whatever is produced on the station.

> Nothing easy about it. Congress doesn't like sending cash to people
> who don't pay US taxes or vote in US elections.

And they don't like spending cash with NASA which has a history of not
managing its spending properly. Any spending with russians or others is
only going to be a necessary evil to fulfilll existing commitments, but
you can bet that the USA will not longer make any commitments since
without the shuttle, the USA won't be in any position to provide
services others can't provide.

> It is unclear Russa can ramp up Progress (and Soyuz) flights that
> quickly. They've never achieved more than 6 per year, and that was way
> back in 1980.

The financial situation has changed quite a bit since then. While
commercialising Progress may be more difficult, the commercial revenus
from Soyuz combined with Russia's huge oil revenus make it far more
realistic now to increase production rates and pay the employees.

Cosnider the incentive to double Soyuz production: Russia could then
boost station occupancy to 6, have 2 or 3 russians and then make money
on 3-4 occupants using russian launch services.
Brian Thorn - 27 Nov 2005 01:34 GMT
>Are the racks similar to computer racks ? Instead of sending a whole
>rack, why not just send the components that screw into the racks ?  For
>instance, Destiny is fairly well outfitted with racks already. When an
>experiment is no longer needed, instead of removing the rack, just
>remove the components, leaving a naked rack which can then accept
>components shipped via Progress.

You'll need some way to secure all those trays in Progress or ATV.
Something like a rack. Might end up being just as easy to retrofit ATV
with the MPLM's CBM-sized hatch and find some way to maneuver ATV
around to Node 2.

>Sending whole racks was neat and allowed quick install and removal while
>shuttle was present. But that is now a capabiolity that will be lost
>forever (unless the Japanese actually make HTV work).

Do we know that? How big is NASA planning the docking hatch for CEV or
its all-cargo brethren?

>(ATV is just a glorified Progress so it doesn't add any functionality to
>the station, it just adds capacity).

Lots and lots of capacity! Also, ATV provides the MPLM-sized cargo
container, ready-made for ISPRs.

>> CBM berthing should be a requisite.
>
>Makes one wonder why ATV wasn't designed for CBMs.

The Soyuz/Progress docking targets aren't on the US side. May also be
clearance issues with ATV's big solar panels sticking out every which
way.

>NASA probably should team up with the japanese and make sure that HTV
>actually becomes real and functional. At least will woudl provide
>upmass. What woudl then be missing is downmass to return experiments and
>whatever is produced on the station.

Or just tell the start-up companies "this is what we need and this is
how much we'll pay" and see what happens. Probably get results around
the same time ramped up ATVs or HTVs come on the scene. Progress will
be available sooner, but the only way Progress can make up the
shortfall is by launching more of them... which will then compete with
Soyuz for resources to double production. And the Russian government
will favor the more lucrative Soyuz over Progress.

>> Nothing easy about it. Congress doesn't like sending cash to people
>> who don't pay US taxes or vote in US elections.
>
>And they don't like spending cash with NASA which has a history of not
>managing its spending properly.

Yet they're giving NASA $16B a year and maybe even more next year.

>but
>you can bet that the USA will not longer make any commitments since
>without the shuttle, the USA won't be in any position to provide
>services others can't provide.

Well, the "service" is human spaceflight. There's Russia, the US, and
China today (with China advancing at a pace which makes NASA's Shuttle
return-to-flight look speedy). What's changes with Shuttle's
retirement? Shuttle will be replaced by CEV and/or commercial
alternatives, and the gap between Shuttle and CEV probably will be no
worse than the one suffered between STS-107 and STS-114 (2-3 years).
Still no European or Japanese manned space vehicle in the meantime.
Kliper may or may not be flying by then... Russia is really no better
than NASA when it comes to fancy proposals for future spacecraft. And
speaking of fancy spacecraft, around the same time NASA is going to be
seriously planning its lunar exploration programs. Say what you want
about US undependability, the prospects of working on the moon is
going to be very tantalizing to our international partners,
particularly Japan. I wouldn't write-off the US as an international
partner just yet.

>Cosnider the incentive to double Soyuz production: Russia could then
>boost station occupancy to 6, have 2 or 3 russians and then make money
>on 3-4 occupants using russian launch services.

I think Russia can relatively easily double Soyuz or Progress
production. What I have doubts about is doubling them both. And that's
what they'll need to do if they double ISS crew size without Shuttle
support and with ATVs flying only once a year per current plans.

Brian
John Doe - 27 Nov 2005 22:07 GMT
> You'll need some way to secure all those trays in Progress or ATV.
> Something like a rack. Might end up being just as easy to retrofit ATV
> with the MPLM's CBM-sized hatch and find some way to maneuver ATV
> around to Node 2.

ATV's cargo space is primarily loaded through the aft portion of the
pressure hull which is a huge opening. Only last minute items are loaded
thorugh the russian sized hatch on forward portion of cargo module. So
it seems likely that ATV could easily be outfitted with racks to hold
experiment units which could then be transfered to racks on the ISS.

So the question is whether the russian hatches can accomodate the width
of modules that are fitten into racks. For instance, if they  use 19"
computer racks, and the hatch opening is only 18", you wouldn't be able
to fit such modules through. (unless they can fit in another direction).

> Do we know that? How big is NASA planning the docking hatch for CEV or
> its all-cargo brethren?

If CEV is to DOCK to the station, it will have the same size hatch as
Shuttle to Station since it will use PMA2.
And remember that CEV is just a glorified double decker apollo capsule.
It doesn't have significant cargo space.

> >Makes one wonder why ATV wasn't designed for CBMs.
>
> The Soyuz/Progress docking targets aren't on the US side. May also be
> clearance issues with ATV's big solar panels sticking out every which
> way.

Since HTV is meant to berth to a CBM port,  why coudn't ATV ?  

For ATV, since one of its functions is to provide tons of reboost
capability, docking on aft port of Zvezda makes sense.

Ideally, ATV would "eject" an MPLM type of can after docking to the
russian segment to be picked up by the canadarm and berthed to a CBM
port. Unfortunatly, the canadarm was not given a grapple point where it
can reach the aft docking port of Zvezda. It wouldn't be that hard to
do, just string a cable from Z1 to Zvezda outdoors, and drill screws
into Zvezda to secure the PGDF to Zvezda :-)

Since the europeans are now planning some form of canadarm for the
russian segment, I wonder if an MPLM in an ATV could be picked up by the
europena arm and handed over to the canadarm and then berted.

In hindsight, had the europeans designed ATV to carry an MPLM from the
start, they could probably launch many of the modules destined for the
ISS. ATV would then have the naked equivalent of a cargo bay. In front
of it would be the docking equipment (and perhaps a mini pressurised
area for food and perishables that the crew can access immediatly upon
docking), and behind the cargo bay the traditional propulsion/guidance module.

> Or just tell the start-up companies "this is what we need and this is
> how much we'll pay" and see what happens.

The problem is that NASA doesn't say "we need to launch 15 tonnes and
return 10 tonnes to earth safely". They say "we need a winged vehicle
made by either lockeed or boeing whose construction will employ people
from michoud, stennis, thiokol, which has the following shape,
structural elements and materials.

Even ATV, which was designed to use "off the shelf" commercial Arianne
launchers ended having to have a customer version of Arianne launcher
for it. (due to weight, centre of gravity etc).

> Well, the "service" is human spaceflight.

If you want to advance human spaceflight beyond sending humans up in a
telephone booth, you need hardware to build bigger hardware in space.
Apollo/CEV may be great to send people to space, but it does nothing to
help build structures big enough to support very long trips. The shuttle
was designed not only as a great cargo and people carrier, but also as a
space truck, capable of doing work in space.

CEV is nothing more than the american version of Soyuz with a more
modern look.

> retirement? Shuttle will be replaced by CEV and/or commercial
> alternatives, and the gap between Shuttle and CEV probably will be no
> worse than the one suffered between STS-107 and STS-114

Assuming CEV isn't cancelled and actually does fly. The problem isn't
CEV. The problem is that NASA is doing nothing to replace the cargo and
space-work capabilities of the shuttle. And that is where the United
States had a HUGE lead over all other nations. A lead which is to be
totally squandered when shuttle is not replaced. CEV is not a
replacement for Shuttle. It is a replacement for Apollo.

> Still no European or Japanese manned space vehicle in the meantime.
> Kliper may or may not be flying by then... Russia is really no better
> than NASA when it comes to fancy proposals for future spacecraft.

Actually, they are.... they hace a mockup of Kipper already built, used
as a great backdrop for photo shoots of politicians ;-) :-)

I think there is one major difference between Klipper and CEV:
commercial operations.

I can see russians going through with Klipper because, by increasing
capacity of their "Soyuz taxi", they can also increase commercial
revenus from rich people as well as other nations wishing to send
crewmembers to the ISS.

Remember that for the ISS, it is the one who provides the escape pods
which has a big say on who gets to stay on the station. If Russia
increases escape pod capacity from 3 to 6, they can then sell seats to
europeans and japanese so they can use their labs.

> speaking of fancy spacecraft, around the same time NASA is going to be
> seriously planning its lunar exploration programs.

Lunar stuff is going to be nothing more than some recreation of Apollo.
A few flights, people get tired and flights to the moon will be stopped.
Don't expect Moon Base Alpha to be built. (like the one that existed
back in 1999 :-)

In the end, the USA will be left with CEV which does nothing more than a
soyuz spacecraft and ferry people to/from the ISS.  The USA will have no
cargo capacity to/from the ISS.

> particularly Japan. I wouldn't write-off the US as an international
> partner just yet.

With only a glorified Soyuz/Apollo capsule and with very murky
commercial capabilities, NASA will not be such a big key player in
space. Russia, with openness to commercials human space flights is
likely to be more important player simply because it remains politically
much easier to fly on a Soyuz than on any NASA spacecraft.

If Bush had really wanted to advance NASA's philosophy, it would have
simplyu told NASA that from now on, it was OK to carry paying customers
on the shuttle and to stop preventing people like TITO from flying into
space. Until this happens, NASA will be quite limited in space travel.

You can't yet justify a full space programme on commercial customers
only. But when you combine paying customers with "government" customers,
you greatly reduce reliance on governmment funds and have a drive to
carry as many people as you can and improve efficiency.

> I think Russia can relatively easily double Soyuz or Progress
> production. What I have doubts about is doubling them both.

What percentage of Soyuz rockets are used to the ISS (soyuz+progress) in
a given year ? Doubling production of soyuz rockets for ISS may not mean
doubling production of Soyuz rockets. Doubling Soyuz orbital spacecraft
means going from 2 to 4 a year. Progress may not need to be doubled to
allow 3 crewmembers back to the station. Besides, if ATV ever flies,
Progress won't need to be increased much to allow 3 crewmembers on station.
Brian Thorn - 27 Nov 2005 23:35 GMT
>If CEV is to DOCK to the station, it will have the same size hatch as
>Shuttle to Station since it will use PMA2.

Unless the baseline docking adapter is sized for CBM and the manned
version uses a CBM->PMA converter of some sort (a PMA inside an
inactive CBM template.)

>And remember that CEV is just a glorified double decker apollo capsule.
>It doesn't have significant cargo space.

The current design would actually have more volume and mass capability
than Progress. Remember, the base diameter is much wider than
Progress. You should easily be able to get four racks around the
periphery at the bottom of the cabin.

>> The Soyuz/Progress docking targets aren't on the US side. May also be
>> clearance issues with ATV's big solar panels sticking out every which
>> way.
>
>Since HTV is meant to berth to a CBM port,  why coudn't ATV ?  

HTV uses solar panels flush with the structure, surrounding it. They
don't stick out in a huge X-pattern like ATV or a wing-pattern like
Soyuz/CEV.

>Since the europeans are now planning some form of canadarm for the
>russian segment, I wonder if an MPLM in an ATV could be picked up by the
>europena arm and handed over to the canadarm and then berted.

No, that arm is tiny compared to SSRMS.

>In hindsight, had the europeans designed ATV to carry an MPLM from the
>start, they could probably launch many of the modules destined for the
>ISS.

Except for most of the truss and Kibo, which weigh too much.

>The problem is that NASA doesn't say "we need to launch 15 tonnes and
>return 10 tonnes to earth safely". They say "we need a winged vehicle
>made by either lockeed or boeing whose construction will employ people
>from michoud, stennis, thiokol, which has the following shape,
>structural elements and materials.

Well, except for the winged vehicle part. Boeing's CEV was
Apollo-shaped and LockMart's was a lifting body until it was
redesigned.

>Even ATV, which was designed to use "off the shelf" commercial Arianne
>launchers ended having to have a customer version of Arianne launcher
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>Apollo/CEV may be great to send people to space, but it does nothing to
>help build structures big enough to support very long trips.

Having a working Space Station greatly reduces the need for building
things from the limited-duration crew transport. Instead, you deliver
all the hardware to the Station and build it there, at your leisure.
For moon/Mars it might be better to build a new Station at 28.5, even
if that station is just a fuel dump consisting of a bunch of
propellant modules docked together a'la Mir. We won't need Shuttle to
do that any more than Russian needed Shuttle to build Salyut/Mir.

>The shuttle
>was designed not only as a great cargo and people carrier, but also as a
>space truck, capable of doing work in space.

And once ISS is completed, that work is done.

>CEV is nothing more than the american version of Soyuz with a more
>modern look.

More retro, actually! And a whole lot bigger, too.

>> retirement? Shuttle will be replaced by CEV and/or commercial
>> alternatives, and the gap between Shuttle and CEV probably will be no
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>CEV. The problem is that NASA is doing nothing to replace the cargo and
>space-work capabilities of the shuttle.

Except put out requests to private industry. And the unmanned CEV is
advertised to have 6,000 lbs. cargo capacity, which seems somewhat
conservative, given the launcher's payload capacity.

>Actually, they are.... they hace a mockup of Kipper already built, used
>as a great backdrop for photo shoots of politicians ;-) :-)

Yeah, and NASA built mockups of X-38, Transhab and Shuttle-C, too. The
X-38 mockup even got drop-tested a few times! Again, Russia is no
better than NASA in this regard. Wishes it were so notwithstanding.

>I think there is one major difference between Klipper and CEV:
>commercial operations.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>revenus from rich people as well as other nations wishing to send
>crewmembers to the ISS.

There aren't that many willing to spend $20 million, though. Or they'd
have ramped up Soyuz production to allow more of them to go. Kliper's
not going to change that.

>Lunar stuff is going to be nothing more than some recreation of Apollo.

No, I doubt that. It looks to me as though the architecture is sized
for a base, not a scouting mission. The lander is huge compared to
Apollo. I expect 2-4 scouting missions to stakeout a base location,
and then base construction begins.

Note that NASA has been negotiating with Japan about converting the
Centrifuge deal to a deal for nuclear power. That's only needed if
you're planning a base, publicly or not.

>A few flights, people get tired and flights to the moon will be stopped.
>Don't expect Moon Base Alpha to be built. (like the one that existed
>back in 1999 :-)

No, but possibly expect something like Devon Island.

>In the end, the USA will be left with CEV which does nothing more than a
>soyuz spacecraft and ferry people to/from the ISS.  The USA will have no
>cargo capacity to/from the ISS.

Well, 6,000 lbs. per flight is better than Progress.

>> particularly Japan. I wouldn't write-off the US as an international
>> partner just yet.
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>likely to be more important player simply because it remains politically
>much easier to fly on a Soyuz than on any NASA spacecraft.

Except that, when you come right down to it, Russia is a government
bureaucracy just like NASA. Kliper is going to be expensive to design
and build, and that money will have to come from the Russian
government, which will control the whole she-bang, just like Soyuz. It
will be the commercial startups, not governments, that revolutionize
space, and the leading contenders are in the US.

>What percentage of Soyuz rockets are used to the ISS (soyuz+progress) in
>a given year ?

No idea, I'm concerned with Soyuz spacecraft production, not booster
production.

>Doubling production of soyuz rockets for ISS may not mean
>doubling production of Soyuz rockets. Doubling Soyuz orbital spacecraft
>means going from 2 to 4 a year. Progress may not need to be doubled to
>allow 3 crewmembers back to the station. Besides, if ATV ever flies,
>Progress won't need to be increased much to allow 3 crewmembers on station.

We're talking about six on ISS, though. Not 3. Progress alone can't
handle 3, only 2 (as demonstrated since STS-107). One ATV a year plus
the usual Progress flights might just barely allow 6. But it will be
close.

Brian
Al - 28 Nov 2005 14:30 GMT
"The way to reduce the Number of Shuttle flights is to reduce the
number of
logistics missions.
The options for alternative logistics transport are:
European ATV "Jules Verne"
Russian Progress
Rapidly developed commercial alternative. "

Besides the ATV there will be the HTV , tho when it will 'really' fly
is a bit hazy.
 
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