Space Forum / Shuttle / October 2004

dave <daveidt@jeack.com.au> wrote in message news:<2slq7uF1l7gb4U1@uni-berlin.de>...

I'm sure its the dumbest!  Our capacity to operate in space allows us
to tap into to extraterrestrial resources.  This comes precisely at
the time our growing needs are beginning to outstrip terrestrial
resources. Clearly delaying or diminishing our capacity in this area
will cost future generations dearly.  Plainly we should move
agressively to develop the skills needed to tap abundand
extraterrestrial resources as quickly as possible and bring about
those changes that are needed to transform life on Earth to one of
plenty for all.

WILL THE REAL ALAN ERSKINE PLEASE STAND UP!

Alan Erskine appears to be the unfortunate target of trolls.  Check it
out;

alanerskine1@bigpond.com
alanerskine@optusnet.com.au
alanerskine1@yahoo.com.au

And from someone who claims to be Alan Erskine himself;

Look closer.  I post via bigpond (alanerskine1@bigpond.com).  I am
being trolled and the trolling is being attributed to me.  The post
you refer to was probably from alanerskine1@yahoo.com.au or
alanerskine1@yahoo.co.nz - free accounts.

Interesting.

Yep.

Could you share your approach?  You're starting with junction
temperature right?

And proprietary information.

Yep.  

Don't underestimate the development of private space programs ability
to dramatically lower costs of space access!

In the Cold War the State Department had to worry about the negative
impact on missile proliferation a low-cost developer of commercial
space travel might have.  In the new age of direct US pre-emptive
intervention in the affairs of any nation that might threaten US
interest, and improved recon abilities due in part to space based
systems, this is no longer an issue.

So, Burt Rutan and all after him will build an X15 analogs and better
and exceed the performance of those systems for something like 1% of
the program cost and 0.1% of the losses in human life!

Yep.  Which is why for-profit operations like Scaled Composites and
not cost-plus like all government programs is a great benefit to the
space faring community.

The government programs could be a pathfinder for private enterprise,
if the government would declassify stuff presently classified and put
NASA in the role of supporting private space development, like NACA
supported private air travel.  Back in the day NACA even evaluated the
military potential of aviation advances produced by industry.  This
could be a role within the Air Force, or even NASA as well in the
modern age of commercial space development.

In the end, low-cost solar will not stop when it reaches the price of
fossil fuels.  Although during the era when fossil fuels are still
dominant, costs will hesitate there.  This will create a brief period
of a decade or less of great profits in low-cost solar.  (a period
when my patents are in place!)

But, eventually, low-cost solar will create low-cost energy generally.
When that happens, we will have a return of the 'too cheap to meter'
scenarios of the nuclear industry of the 1950s.

Low cost energy along with an effective international police force
(what the US is tending toward, they just haven't figured out how to
pay for it) will create a period of dramatic economic growth that
could transform the world in a few decades.  This isn't just a
political rant.  The spread of nuclear technology and the outbreak of
even limited nuclear conflict is a very very bad thing that will throw
any rosy scenario into a cocked hat.  So, its in everyone's interest
to make sure that doesn't happen.  Even if they don't believe it or
support it.  I think future generations will look on George Bush as we
now look on George Washington (I didn't vote for him, so I can say
this without bias) and today's war on terror will be viewed by future
generations the way Americans view the Whiskey Rebellion.

And it could go faster than even that!

Add in the economic impact of the appearance of real honest-to-god
robots in a large variety of roles as computer technology continues to
advance, and you have a recipe for economic growth on a scale
unprecedented in history!  (just as computers eliminate the need for
much of middle management and improve the skills of even tiny
companies - robots eliminate the need for skilled workers and allow
any population anywhere to benefit from the skills and knowledge
available anywhere in the human corpus of knowledge - essentially
eliminating the need for training altogether, just pay for the robot -
banks leverage a portion of the robot's earning potential - and users
put it to work - the banks keep everyone honest)

If robots arise over the next five to eight years, we will see general
global growth skyrocket from 4% to 7% range to the MID double digit
range (30% to 70%) - which will transform the world in less than a
decade, and expand PER CAPITA energy use to levels that are
unprecedented in history.

This is the real rosy scenario.  Every scenario that doesn't postulate
strong economic growth is a recipe for the eventual abandonment of
industry by humanity.

Why will per capita energy uses be so high?  Well, they grow rapidly
as a population begins to change the way they travel.  From walking
and biking to autos for example.  They grow rapidly again as personal
jets or their modern analogs become generally available.  I flew with
a millionaire a few days ago from NYC.  His fuel bill for that one
trip was something like $20,000.  Future personal jet users might not
be so wasteful (I was thinking of personal trains that personal trains
used by the wealthy of the 19th century were very similar to this jet
interior - but today's autos are smaller and more efficient though
achieving the same ends as the personal train)

Again when personal spacecraft become generally available energy use
rises.  Then, continuously as speeds increase toward light speed.

But, lets keep it in the 21st century shall we?  

We'll see everyone get autos, and before that's completed, everyone
will get VTOL flyers.  Bad news for the road builders.  Good news for
the environment.

Automated piloting will mean that these flyers will come in all sizes,
down to package carriers.  People in the future will think no more of
putting an object in a package sized automated ballistic transport and
tossing it out the window with an absolute certainty that it will
arrive reliably to where its going in minutes - just as we think
nothing of dialing a few digits and reaching anyone anywhere by
telephone in the world.

What this means is that energy use could be not only 10x today's use
in 30 years- which means everyone lives at US levels or better.  But
that energy use could be 100x to 300x today's use in less than 20
years.

In this high growth scenario (mook's rosy scenario) everyone lives far
far better than even millionaires do today and the wealthy live even
better still - and they all will regard our present age as we might
regard the one room school houses and buckboards of the 19th century.

In this high-growth scenario space travel costs have dropped
dramatically, and energy needs have risen dramatically.

The point of all this goes back to what you're saying.  This
fundamental shift in energy use drives collectors off-world in search
of higher efficiencies and lower costs.

Our models indicate that there is one invariant and that is, when you
install about 500,000 sq km of solar collectors on Earth, there are
very powerful reasons to begin installing far larger areas in space
and beam energy to where its needed.

But we're setting the stage today.  With lower cost technology brought
about by private investment, a commitment to peace and liberty
throughout the world to insure peace in the nuclear age, and the
ability of people to work hard to improve themselves and the prospects
of their children by innovating new ways of doing things.

Bill