Space Forum / Space Policy / July 2008

On Jul 3, 7:37 am, Claude Hopper <boobooililili...@roadrunner.com>
wrote:

Humans and other animals are self-replicating.  Yet they find
themselves limited to a range.  Humans are unique, in that they use
technology to extend their range.  That is, they do not adapt to the
environment, humans adapt the environment to their needs by using
technology.

Humans originally sprang from the same thread of life from which low-
land apes appeared.  They are well adapted to tropical jungles.   Yet,
through the technology of fire and clothing and housing, humans have
extended their range to the ends of the Earth.

It might be possible that if humans become space faring, they will
have adapted the inhospitable environment of space to support them.
With the development of interstellar transport - humans could spread
across the cosmos.

One interesting thing about human rates of reproduction, they rise
with rising living standards, until about $10,000 per person per year
is reached, then reproduction rate fall - above $32,000 per person per
year, reproductive rates fall below replacement levels.

Is this a general tendency of reproductive systems?

I think it is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bathtub_curve

Any population of devices will have a rate of 'infant mortality' -
where defects built into the device work themselves out and 'kill' the
operation of the device.   This will be high at first, and then fall
off with time.

Any population of devices will have a rate of wear out failures -
where defects accumulated over time will cause the device to fall
inoperative.   This will be small at first and rise exponentially with
time.

Any population of devices will have a rate of random failures - this
will be constant.

This imposes a life span on the device.

And determines how many resources are applied to repair, versus how
many resources are applied to reproduction - and the rate at which the
population will grow, and the resources needed for that growth to take
place.

This is preciselly the same thing we see in human populations.   We
have infants that die - we have elderly die - we have people of all
ages die randomly - in much the same way.  We also see that if
insufficient resources are available population growth rates are low,
and can fall below replacement levels.  We also see that there is an
optimal rate of resource usage that maximizes population growth
rate.   Above or below that optimal rate, population growth rates can
fall - sometimes below replacement levels.

Consider, that below $10,000per person per year, medical care and
education are in short supply, so life becomes shorter and more
brutish.   Above $10,000 per person per year, something else is going
on - living conditions are adequate and reproductive rates decline at
folks engage in non-reproductive behavior with their greater wealth.
Above $32,000 per person per year, reproductive behavior falls below
replacement levels - and populations decline.

Any reproductive machine system - will likely follow the same sorts of
rules.   That's because the machines will have a limited life.  During
its useful life that machine will require the consumption of resources
for their maintenance over time.  Maintenance resources will compete
with reproductive behavior.  Any system sophisticated enough to
reproduce itself will be sophisticated enough to make this decision -
repair or replace?

This is true of any reproductive system... whether biological or
machine.

Tapping into the resources of the solar system - and the star systems
beyond - increases the availability of resources well beyond that
available on Earth.

Consider that the crust of the Earth is mined to a depth of about 1/10
mile - even though vertical shafts and drill holes have gone far
deeper.   Generally speaking the ocean floor is not mined.   Even so,
the volume of material that may be accessible to humanity that's 1
mile deep and covers the entire surface of the Earth comprises 196
million cubic miles.   This is equivalent to a SINGLE asteroid 720
miles in diameter.  - about the size of Ceres.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_belt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuiper_belt

There are over 100,000 small objects in the solar system with a total
mass several thousand times larger mass, and since depths are limited
by pressure and temperature - far greater depths are possible on
objects with small gravities.  So, the moon may be mined to a depth of
36 miles, Mars 9 miles, Mercury 9 miles, dwarf planets are mined all
the way through - due to their low surface gravity.   Again, thousands
of times the material wealth is available to a space faring species
than a planet bound species - even in their own solar system.

Trillions of star orbiting stations, in close orbit around a star,
that use light pumped laser beams that convert a sizeable portion of a
star's radiation to laser energy supports interstellar commerce by
using laser light sails.  Speeds up to 1/3 light speed have been shown
to be possible.  Mass flow rates sufficient to support large
interplanetary populations are supportable between stars using this
technology.   Coordinating von-neuman machine populations with radio
telescopes or laser communications, with an interstellar internet is
also feasible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beam-powered_propulsion

So, millions of times the materials available to planet bound
populations are possible to star-faring self reproductive machine
systems.

This means that it is likely that populations will be limited -
because at very high levels of 'income' or 'wealth' - reproductive
rates for a population of self reproductive machines fall below
replacement levels - and any species, whether biological or machine
will be 'rich' well above the level where reproductive rates fall
below replacment levels.

Even systems that are engineered to maintain 'wealth' at a level that
maximizes reproductive rates - are unstable in the long run.   That's
because either resources run out, or resources run up - since the
relation between resources, reproduction and maintenance is not
stable.

Long growth cycles fail due to resource shortages or resource run up -
and we find populations limited to specific places and times depending
on the history of the population and the arrangement of resources -
and the ability to get at those resources.

Humanity for example - if unconstrained by resource shortages - can
maintain 4% to 8% economic growth rates while population growth rates
have fallen below 1% per year - and are declining with rising living
standards.  Assuming we successfully tap into solar energy and other
solar system resources over the next 50 years to end our commodity
shortages, we will see by the middle of the 22nd century, human
numbers will peak - even with vastly increased life spans (due to
random deaths) due to age control - and then begin a slow inevitable
decline from about 9 billion - by about 0.1% per year.

Add into this mix a capability of expanding at 1/3 light speed - and
we see a sphere of human influence expanding by 33 light years per
century.   This is like an explosion - and the number of humans are
like the pressure of a gas in an expanding explosion - what happens -
is that the density falls to zero with a finite radius - in about 300
years - which is only 1/3000 the diameter of the milky way - one of
only 100s of billions of galaxies in the cosmos.

Increasing speeds beyond 1/3 light speed makes matters worse as far as
population density.  That's because time dilation SLOWS reproduction
of populations in transit - and the volumes are much larger - with far
large rnumbers of stars for a smaller number of total population to
inhabit.

Increasing speeds beyond light speed - if such is possible - makes
matters worse still wrt population density.   That's because ftl
travel opens up the possibility of time travel, and that opens up the
possibility of entering parallel universes - this vastly increases the
number of 'destinations' - vastly increasing individual wealth -
slowing population reproduction - and against this declining
population - more destinations mean lower density.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_travel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many_worlds

In the ideal case all of space and time is available to everyone - and
not only 100 billion stars in each of 100 billion galaxies - but also
all of time - and all parallel universes accessible from the past -
are available to everyone.  Assuming a perfect method to instantly
transport to anywhere in this vast space - reduces density at any one
spot - while also reducing reproductive rates - by increasing personal
wealth (of machine or animal) slowing the urge to reproduce
accentuating the urge to maintain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

This is the answer to Fermi's famous query - Where are they?   They
are here, but at such low densities, the cosmos has absorbed them
all.  Small machines, or small animals - whether they be the size of
puppies or dinosaurs - the age of field mice or the age of sequoias -
are absorbed in a vast spacetime continuum of the cosmos facing the
difficulties of resources, reproduction and maintenance.

Time travel and faster than light travel are synonomous.  Large
supermassive black holes at the center of each galaxy, may be capable
of supporting a large population of faster than light travel - and
time travel - vehicles.

http://www.geocities.com/theophysics/tipler-rotating-cylinders.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermassive_black_holes

Colliding dozens of iron-56 isotope wedges at 1/3 light speed using
laser light sails may produce engineered microscopic black holes and
black hole dusts.   These engineered black holes may operate together
to tap the zero point energy to create additional engineered black
hole dusts - creating a sort of self replicating machine system.  Such
dusts could implement time circuits, gravity drives and a number of
other interesting technical systems.   Such machine systems flying
through supermassive black holes at each galaxy's center, has all of
space time available to it.  These machines, tapping the abundant zero
point energy of the universe, will quickly fall below replacement
levels as any amount of materials they seek become available.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_point_energy

I believe that the human race could rise to nearly 9 billion people
and then expand as described.  We might organize our affairs to
reclaim all humans everywhere - in a human recovery project - creating
a heaven on Earth - and send out fleets of time travelling robots to
recover every personality in history - and reproduce them with all
others in their time line - similar to that described here ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riverworld

Given the nature of exponential growth - this only DOUBLES the number
of humans in each time line.  That is, we grow from 9 billions to 18
billions.   So, it does little to change the impact - and it does much
to increase wealth and the number of destinations available to all
individuals.

We see this in the natural world.   Consider algal blooms.   A species
of algae is well suited to survive and reproduce in the ocean.   Under
the right conditions several reproductive growth cycles occur without
interruption - and we have an algal bloom.  But as soon as conditions
are not right - the bloom disappates into the ocean.

Same thing here on a cosmic scale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algal_bloom

On Jul 3, 4:37 am, Claude Hopper <boobooililili...@roadrunner.com>
wrote:

They will be very surprised we're still alive and kicking.  Either
that or they'll artificially laugh their CPUs to death, as they
replicate those replacements for the human species that's simply too
snookered, dumbfounded and faith-based bigoted for their own good.

However, Earth is not exactly an energy rich planet, at least not
compared to Venus.

- Brad Guth Brad_Guth Brad.Guth BradGuth