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The Fermi Paradox and SETI Success

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K_h - 14 Aug 2008 01:12 GMT
Fermi's paradox suggests that there are little or no other intelligent
civilizations within the Milky Way galaxy.  On the other hand, intelligent
life should exist on a substantial fraction of planets with life because
natural selection broadly increases intelligence with time.  Here on the
Earth, for example, numerous mammals have a high degree of intelligence and
many of them could reach human intelligence with a few more million years of
evolution.

This contradiction can be resolved if the origin of life is far harder than
commonly believed.  That is, in the Drake equation, f_L should be far
smaller than most people think it is.  Even on planets that are life
friendly the formation of life should be extremely rare for the below
reasons.

For life to start, a molecule must arise that can make approximate copies of
itself.  Once that happens then natural selection can work its magic.  But a
molecule that can make approximate copies of itself must be a fairly
sophisticated nano-machine being comprised of dozens, if not hundreds, of
molecules and it must arise via inorganic and non-evolutionary processes.

From the study of DNA and genes, it is known that all life on the Earth has
a common origin (undoubtedly from a molecule of the aforementioned kind).
Since Earth is a life friendly planet, why hasn't another molecule (of the
aforementioned kind) arisen?  If it had, then life on the Earth would have
organisms with two different molecules for genetic codes: DNA and something
else.

Since all Earthly life is based on DNA, this suggests that, over the four
billion years of life on Earth, this has never happened again.  That is,
over the last four billion years, no other molecule has arisen by inorganic
and non-evolutionary processes that can make approximate copies of itself.
And Earth is a life-friendly planet so chances are optimal that such a
molecule should arise.

This suggests that the formation of such a molecule is a very rare event.
In other words, the reaction rate of inorganic chemistry per square meter
times the surface area of the Earth, times the average depth such reactions
take place, times four billion years is <<, much less, than the number of
such reactions needed before an approximately self reproducing molecule
arises by chance.

If that first molecule had not arisen here on the Earth then the Earth would
probably have been lifeless ever since.  This same reasoning applies if life
first started somewhere else in the solar system and then migrated to Earth
(for example from Mars).  If life rose independently on Mars once, over the
past four billion years, then that suggests that the reaction rate of
inorganic chemistry per square meter, times the surface area of a Mars sized
world, times the average depth such reactions take place, times four billion
years is about the number needed so that an approximately self reproducing
molecule arises by chance once, ~ 1.

It seems too much of a coincidence that the laws of chemistry work out in
such a way that life arises, on average, once per terrestrial world per
several billion years.  Rather, for such cases, it seems much more likely
that life arises multiple times or almost never.  The latter possibility
makes sense from a combinatorial perspective.  A self reproducing molecule
will be composed of dozens to hundreds of other molecules.  But the total
number of permutations for such a molecule's components will far exceed the
total number of inorganic chemical interactions that take place per
terrestrial world per several billion years.

A simple combinatorial thought experiment explains why.  The number of ways
of stacking a deck of playing cards is so huge that if 67.8 billion solar
masses were converted entirely into protons then each proton stands for a
different way of stacking the deck.  But there are 92 naturally occurring
chemical elements and a self reproducing molecule will probably be composed
of hundreds of atoms from the set of 92 different kinds (there only 52 cards
in a playing deck).

So, in the Drake equation, f_L could be something really small like 10^-90.
In this case the fact that life exists on the Earth simply shows that the
universe is super huge and its true size far exceeds the visible universe.

General relativity says that the universe sits on top of an infinite amount
of gravitational potential energy.  During both cosmic inflation and dark
energy inflation the universe falls down its own gravity well converting
huge quantities of its gravitational potential energy into vacuum energy and
expansion energy.  This probably explains why the universe is so huge.

So the universe could contain 10^150 planets, for example.  If f_L is 10^-90
then the total number of planets in the universe that have life is around
10^60.  So there are a lot of planets with life out there but none of them
are close by.  So this is one possible explanation for why there is only one
example of life in the solar system.  And this explanation is consistent
with Fermi's paradox.  It also suggests that any other life in our solar
system got there via migration.

In light of all this, it cannot be concluded that water, oxygen, and
methane, for example, are indicators of extraterrestrial life.  The presence
of these simple gases in the atmospheres of other planets can easily be
explained by inorganic processes.

If Earth is the only planet in 10^150 with life then that suggests that the
universe is fine tuned for Earthly life.  If a substantial fraction of the
10^150 planets have life then that suggests the whole universe is finely
tuned for life.  If the universe if not fine-tuned for life then that
suggests the number of planets with life should be around the logarithmic
middle of 10^150 or around 10^75.

In conclusion, it seems there are lots of planets with life out there but
none of them will ever communicate with humans.

k
John Harshman - 14 Aug 2008 01:38 GMT
> Fermi's paradox suggests that there are little or no other intelligent
> civilizations within the Milky Way galaxy.  On the other hand, intelligent
> life should exist on a substantial fraction of planets with life because
> natural selection broadly increases intelligence with time.

Does it? News to me. What evidence do you have that this is the case?

> Here on the
> Earth, for example, numerous mammals have a high degree of intelligence and
> many of them could reach human intelligence with a few more million years of
> evolution.

Yes, if there were indeed strong selection pushing them toward greater
intelligence. What makes you think there is?

> This contradiction can be resolved if the origin of life is far harder than
> commonly believed.

Easier to resolve it by doubting your central claim, that there is a
general trend toward increasing intelligence. The great majority of the
world's living species will not disagree with you, because they're
bacteria without so much as a nerve among them.

> That is, in the Drake equation, f_L should be far
> smaller than most people think it is.  Even on planets that are life
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> sophisticated nano-machine being comprised of dozens, if not hundreds, of
> molecules and it must arise via inorganic and non-evolutionary processes.

> From the study of DNA and genes, it is known that all life on the Earth has
> a common origin (undoubtedly from a molecule of the aforementioned kind).
> Since Earth is a life friendly planet, why hasn't another molecule (of the
> aforementioned kind) arisen?  If it had, then life on the Earth would have
> organisms with two different molecules for genetic codes: DNA and something
> else.

Not necessarily. What if DNA is the only reasonable basis? It would be
invented independently more than once. But of course all life we know of
is related. Either life arose here once because it's just that unlikely,
or it arose several times and only one survives (look up coalescence, if
you will), or the first origin to happen changed conditions to make it
unlikely for a second origin to happen. You're going to have to rule out
the other two alternatives if you want to pick the first one. Another
problem is that life arose comparatively soon after the world became
hostpitable to attempts; it doesn't sound that unlikely.

> Since all Earthly life is based on DNA, this suggests that, over the four
> billion years of life on Earth, this has never happened again.  That is,
> over the last four billion years, no other molecule has arisen by inorganic
> and non-evolutionary processes that can make approximate copies of itself.
> And Earth is a life-friendly planet so chances are optimal that such a
> molecule should arise.

Not true. Earth is now a very life-unfriendly planet. Organic molecules
are eaten before they have much chance to evolve, and that nasty
poisonous oxygen degrades organic compounds.

[snips]

> In light of all this, it cannot be concluded that water, oxygen, and
> methane, for example, are indicators of extraterrestrial life.  The presence
> of these simple gases in the atmospheres of other planets can easily be
> explained by inorganic processes.

Who says water is an indicator of life? It's only claimed to be
necessary for life. Methane, as far as I know, is never mentioned.
Oxygen is the indicator of life, and if you want to suggest an inorganic
process that can make a lot of free oxygen in an atmosphere, feel free.

> If Earth is the only planet in 10^150 with life then that suggests that the
> universe is fine tuned for Earthly life.  If a substantial fraction of the
> 10^150 planets have life then that suggests the whole universe is finely
> tuned for life.  If the universe if not fine-tuned for life then that
> suggests the number of planets with life should be around the logarithmic
> middle of 10^150 or around 10^75.

That's what we might call number salad. Can you present a real argument
why any of these numbers would mean what you claim?

> In conclusion, it seems there are lots of planets with life out there but
> none of them will ever communicate with humans.

In conclusion? You have just denied the entire rest of your post. First
you claim that life is rare but intelligence is inevitable given life.
And to conclude you claim that life is common but intelligence is rare.
What exactly are you smoking?
Timberwoof - 14 Aug 2008 03:01 GMT
> Who says water is an indicator of life? It's only claimed to be
> necessary for life. Methane, as far as I know, is never mentioned.
> Oxygen is the indicator of life, and if you want to suggest an inorganic
> process that can make a lot of free oxygen in an atmosphere, feel free.

Only oxygen?

Yeah... it's common and it does some handy chemical reactions. But
similar arguments can be made for water.

Signature

Timberwoof <me at timberwoof dot com> http://www.timberwoof.com
People who can't spell get kicked out of Hogwarts.

William Hamblen - 14 Aug 2008 04:14 GMT
>> Who says water is an indicator of life? It's only claimed to be
>> necessary for life. Methane, as far as I know, is never mentioned.
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>Yeah... it's common and it does some handy chemical reactions. But
>similar arguments can be made for water.

Oxygen is reactive enough that oxygen in the atmosphere would be
depleted unless restored from some source.  The only likely source is
photosynthesis.  Where you have atmospheric oxygen you have living
plants.

Bud
Timberwoof - 14 Aug 2008 05:14 GMT
> >> Who says water is an indicator of life? It's only claimed to be
> >> necessary for life. Methane, as far as I know, is never mentioned.
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> photosynthesis.  Where you have atmospheric oxygen you have living
> plants.

Yes, that makes sense. I had it in my head that other chemical bases for
live were being discussed, and perhaps some other element or compound
could fulfill a similar role.

But I agree: If oxygen is present in an atmosphere, that would be a
really really probable sign of life. :-)

Signature

Timberwoof <me at timberwoof dot com> http://www.timberwoof.com
People who can't spell get kicked out of Hogwarts.

Paul J Gans - 14 Aug 2008 17:33 GMT
In talk.origins Timberwoof <timberwoof.spam@infernonospamsoft.com> wrote:

>> >> Who says water is an indicator of life? It's only claimed to be
>> >> necessary for life. Methane, as far as I know, is never mentioned.
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
>> photosynthesis.  Where you have atmospheric oxygen you have living
>> plants.

>Yes, that makes sense. I had it in my head that other chemical bases for
>live were being discussed, and perhaps some other element or compound
>could fulfill a similar role.

>But I agree: If oxygen is present in an atmosphere, that would be a
>really really probable sign of life. :-)

But its absence would not be a sign that there is no life...

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

Walter Bushell - 28 Aug 2008 20:34 GMT
> In talk.origins Timberwoof <timberwoof.spam@infernonospamsoft.com> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 22 lines]
>
> But its absence would not be a sign that there is no life...

A good indication that said life will not be good conversationalists
though.
Paul J Gans - 29 Aug 2008 02:19 GMT
In talk.origins Walter Bushell <proto@panix.com> wrote:

>> In talk.origins Timberwoof <timberwoof.spam@infernonospamsoft.com> wrote:
>>
[quoted text clipped - 22 lines]
>>
>> But its absence would not be a sign that there is no life...

>A good indication that said life will not be good conversationalists
>though.

I'm not sure.  Given what infests many newsgroups these days
I am fairly sure that silocon life-form aliens are already
among us.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

John Harshman - 14 Aug 2008 05:40 GMT
>> Who says water is an indicator of life? It's only claimed to be
>> necessary for life. Methane, as far as I know, is never mentioned.
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> Yeah... it's common and it does some handy chemical reactions. But
> similar arguments can be made for water.

No they can't. Unlike water, free oxygen is not common anywhere that I
know of except on earth, where it's made by life. Water is all over, a
product of inorganic chemistry.
Friar Broccoli - 14 Aug 2008 05:41 GMT
On Aug 13, 8:38 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
wrote:
> > Fermi's paradox suggests that there are little or no other intelligent
> > civilizations within the Milky Way galaxy.  On the other hand, intelligent
> > life should exist on a substantial fraction of planets with life because
> > natural selection broadly increases intelligence with time.
>
> Does it? News to me. What evidence do you have that this is the case?

There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
species on earth with time.
Chris L Peterson - 14 Aug 2008 06:05 GMT
>There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
>species on earth with time.

That is not obvious. We have almost no idea at all about the
intelligence of animals over most of the period they have existed.
Except for humans, and possibly a handful of other species, it isn't
clear that a "broad range of species" is any more intelligent now than
several hundred million years ago.
_________________________________________________

Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com
Ben Standeven - 14 Aug 2008 17:01 GMT
> On Wed, 13 Aug 2008 21:41:58 -0700 (PDT), Friar Broccoli
>
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> Chris L Peterson
> Cloudbait Observatoryhttp://www.cloudbait.com

You can lose the "except for humans"; we don't actually know that
some of those fossil animals weren't more intelligent than we are,
after all. They just didn't leave any signs of civilization, a hundred
million years later.
Chris L Peterson - 14 Aug 2008 18:42 GMT
>You can lose the "except for humans"; we don't actually know that
>some of those fossil animals weren't more intelligent than we are,
>after all. They just didn't leave any signs of civilization, a hundred
>million years later.

In a sense that is true. Defining "intelligence" seems extraordinarily
difficult. But in the context of this discussion, I think it can be
taken as the ability to create sophisticated technology (a likely
requirement for traveling between the stars). I think that if a
technological species had inhabited the Earth at some earlier time, we'd
probably have evidence of it.
_________________________________________________

Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com
Walter Bushell - 01 Sep 2008 23:19 GMT
> >You can lose the "except for humans"; we don't actually know that
> >some of those fossil animals weren't more intelligent than we are,
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> Cloudbait Observatory
> http://www.cloudbait.com

If it was among the denizens of the pre chlorophyll world, I doubt
anything would have survived.
Steven L. - 15 Aug 2008 18:27 GMT
> we don't actually know that
> some of those fossil animals weren't more intelligent than we are,
> after all. They just didn't leave any signs of civilization, a hundred
> million years later.

For extinct species, you can get clues from the shape of the brain case
and from its encephalization quotient: the ratio of brain mass to body
mass.  As you would expect, humans have the highest ratio of brain mass
to body mass of any of the medium and larger sized animals today.  (This
method breaks down for the smallest creatures like insects; obviously
you need an animal of sufficient size to have any decent functioning brain.)

The dinosaur Troodon had a brain mass to body mass ratio comparable to a
modern baboon.  And I believe that's the highest such ratio for any of
the dinosaur genera.  Most had a smaller ratio; the sauropods especially
so.  The Permian fauna were even worse.

But even the brain case of Troodon shows that it didn't have prefrontal
lobes like the modern human brain or the modern dolphin brain.  So was
it intelligent?  Probably at the level of a monkey or a cat.  Not like a
human or a dolphin.

Finally, notice that "civilization" advanced relatively rapidly once
humans developed those prefrontal lobes.  In the space of just 150,000
years (which is tiny compared to the age of the earth), we advanced from
spears and stone axes to interplanetary spaceships.  The dinosaurs had
160 million years to play around and never did any such thing--or they
would have been all through our Solar System by now.  That tells you
they didn't have that level of intelligence.  It's a kind of "Fermi
Paradox" applied to extinct species right here on earth.

Signature

Steven L.
Email:  sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Walter Bushell - 01 Sep 2008 23:18 GMT
> But even the brain case of Troodon shows that it didn't have prefrontal
> lobes like the modern human brain or the modern dolphin brain.  So was
> it intelligent?  Probably at the level of a monkey or a cat.  Not like a
> human or a dolphin.

Neither do birds, IIUC. Considering what some bird can do with very
small brains . .  ..
John Harshman - 14 Aug 2008 06:06 GMT
> On Aug 13, 8:38 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
> species on earth with time.

Has there? What broad range, exactly? And if natural selection broadly
increased intelligence with time, we would expect all species to be
undergoing this push, wouldn't we? Yet we see that brains exist only in
a small subset of species within one restricted clade (Metazoa), and
that, depending on how you define the word, complex brains exist only in
a small subset of those (which I will choose to interpret here as
Cephalopoda and Gnathostomata), and that particular complex ones exist
only in a small subset of those (Aves and Mammalia), and that only one
species has human-level intelligence, and from observing usenet, that
only rarely. It's hard to consider this a general trend. Similar results
could be achieved by random diffusion starting at a barrier, with a
great deal of variance in the intelligence of the extreme tail.
Chris.B - 14 Aug 2008 08:39 GMT
Sod the chemistry! Every assumption we make is only that. We know
almost nothing about our own planet. Particularly below the surface of
the seas which cover much of our own world. We cannot imagine any
dominantly intelligent species not having our avarice, aggression and
chronic immorality. It is completely beyond our way of thinking except
in sci-fantasy terms. Our intelligence is based on learning to take
something from somebody else, by force, rather than obtaining it for
ourselves. Hierarchy is a corruption built into our genes. A coat of
paint to disguise theft by the strongest from the weakest. Strongest
always wins. We even equate this with survival of species. Survival of
the fittest. Fittest for what exactly? Resource depletion and
genocide?

We assume that no other "alien" species is as curious or driven to
explore because they haven't yet taken advanatge of the White House
Lawn's excellent landing facilities. Did any other species need to
escape endlessly from the destruction of its habitat due to
overcrowding, corruption at the top of the local mafia and yet more
resource depletion? Africa has hardly moved on in millions of years.
Is Afria on another planet? Are the present inhabitants another race?
Or have they merely borrowed our more destructive toys to continue
their inter-tribal wars of stick waving? Is modern America any more
than a bunch of stick wavers ihabiting the last remaining vestiges of
their particular bit of the global jungle? They took it from the last
lot and it seems that others will soon outbreed them. To repeat the
land theft trick in a more subtle way. Survival of the fittest? Fit
for what? Slum dwelling, crime and drugs abuse?

Who knows how many intelligent races out there see the scourge of the
human race as the most dangerous threat to *their* survival? They may
be operating a no-go zone around us out to dozens of light years. Just
to keep us safely locked in. If we ever go hyperdrive we may suddenly
cease to exist. Survival of the fittest may have not count for us when
we finally have the ability to spread the human infection. The bared
teeth are only ever a moment away. Pass me my stick. No, I like yours
better. I will take yours!
Steven L. - 15 Aug 2008 18:35 GMT
> Sod the chemistry! Every assumption we make is only that. We know
> almost nothing about our own planet. Particularly below the surface of
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> something from somebody else, by force, rather than obtaining it for
> ourselves.

The fact that ants and termites conduct organized warfare and organized
pillage suggests that war is not something that is unique to humans.

Ants and termites live in societies, just like we do.  And guess what,
they make war on their own kind, just like we do.  They enslave their
captives, just like we used to do.

They don't sit around and take a vote whether to go to war.  This is
instinctive behavior, built into their genes.

And if ants had ever evolved into an intelligent tool-using
civilization, they would be at least as savage and cold-blooded warriors
as we are.  They would, in fact, resemble the "Borg" of Star Trek.
Humanoid ants.

Signature

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Email:  sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Friar Broccoli - 15 Aug 2008 02:08 GMT
On Aug 14, 1:06 am, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
wrote:
>> On Aug 13, 8:38 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
>> wrote:
>>>> Fermi's paradox suggests that there are little or no other intelligent
>>>> civilizations within the Milky Way galaxy.  On the other hand, intelligent
>>>> life should exist on a substantial fraction of planets with life because
>>>> natural selection broadly increases intelligence with time.

.

>>> Does it? News to me. What evidence do you have that this is the case?

.

>> There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
>> species on earth with time.

> Has there? What broad range, exactly? And if natural selection
> broadly increased intelligence with time, we would expect all
> species to be undergoing this push, wouldn't we?

I don't see how this follows at all.  I would expect different
species to adopt widely differing strategies depending on
circumstances.  In plants, intelligence would be a complete
waste of resources.  Others like Starfish and Jellyfish have
used other strategies to ensure they can navigate and persist in
their environments without needing intelligence.

Brains are one method for allowing adaptive behaviour which in
turn allows creatures to harvest an often wide range of
resources, while avoiding a wider range of dangers in an
increasingly complex environment. (Not all species need or use
this strategy, just as not all use hard parts, or get really
big or whatever.)

> Yet we see that brains exist only in a small subset of species
> within one restricted clade (Metazoa), and that, depending on
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> Mammalia), and that only one species has human-level
> intelligence, and from observing usenet, that only rarely.

> It's hard to consider this a general trend. Similar results
> could be achieved by random diffusion starting at a barrier,
> with a great deal of variance in the intelligence of the
> extreme tail.

But you don't appear to be arguing a diffusion model.  When we
had this same discussion (with respect to the broader measure
complexity - of which intelligence is a subset) and I pointed
out that trees had added complexity; you asserted that that
increase had ended in the Permian.

(that discussion was here:
http://groups.google.com/group/talk.origins/msg/dd0e90c2d77de083)

So you appear to be arguing that such characteristics pop (rather
slowly) into existence and then remain static for the rest of
time.  Your entire model bears an eerie similarity to an Old
Earth Creationist model.  Are Pagano, Martinez, and Pitman
starting to wear you down?

And even if you are arguing a diffusion model it plainly
doesn't fit some obvious facts:

Assuming that brain size as shown in the fossil record is an
adequate surrogate for intelligence (admittedly it is far from
perfect):

If we consider the starting gate for the dinosaurs was the
beginning of the Triassic and the gate for modern mammals the
beginning of the Paleocene then mammals today are
proportionately at the Middle Jurassic, but the brain to body
ratio of the average large mammal vastly exceeds anything the
dinosaurs produced then or at any other time in their history.
And with the exception of the Ratites we don't (as far as I
know) see any large small-brained reptile-like land animals
competing with us.

Furthermore, our own recent evolutionary history in no way
matches a diffusion model.  Something caused a spike in primate
brain size about 15 million years ago, and then we saw an even
more dramatic spike during the last 3 million years.  I know a
few theories about what drove the latter spike, and while I
don't have the slightest idea, which, if any of them are "true"
it is clear from the abrupt change in slope of the curve that
something was DRIVING that increase.

Now returning to the specifics of which groups have done well
in the brain game, it appears to me that we have enough data
points to show an increase in brain size with time:

1- Metazoa/multicellars - begin with no nervous system
   Obviously intelligence depends on the development of
   multicellularity but that seems to be an inevitable outcome
   of evolution given enough time.  You said further down that
   it occurred at least five times.

Brain development began in three separate lines of multicellular
animal:

2a - Cephalopoda (squids, octopuses)
2b - Gnathostomata (jawed vertebrates)
2c - Arthropod (crabs and insects)

Your paragraph above mentions aves (together with mammalia) as
achieving exceptional levels of intelligence, but I know of no
work suggesting that birds are smarter than crocodiles, or
sharks (which have a brain/body ratio similar to mammals), or
octopus.

So in my book we see significant advances in intelligence in
at least five group lines:

3a - Cephalopoda(squids, octopuses)

And within Gnathostomata:
3b - Sauropsida/reptiles (Crocodiles)
3c - Chondrichthyes (Sharks)
3d - Aves (birds)
3e - Mammals (John Harshman)

Since Sauropsida began evolving about 300 million years ago and
Aves about 150 million years ago and modern mammals began
seriously diversifying 65 million years ago, we know that the
enhancement of intelligence (or its surrogate - brain size) has
been more or less continuous since the Cambrian although
probably not in all the reference groups over the entire
period.

So it seems to me that we have passable physical and
inferential evidence for a steady increase in brain size and
intelligence over time, as well as a plausible model
(adaptation to an increasingly complex and competitive
environment) to explain why it occurred.

Once again, I will ask you for evidence that the self-evident
and expected pattern is not (more or less) the one I am
describing.  Can you do any better than:

  "I'm wary of claims that anything is self-evident, and
   attempts to push the burden of proof onto the negative."

Cordially;

Friar Broccoli
Robert Keith Elias, Quebec, Canada  Email: EliasRK (of) gmail * com
Best programmer's & all purpose text editor: http://www.semware.com

--------- I consider ALL arguments in support of my views ---------
Paul J Gans - 15 Aug 2008 03:29 GMT
In talk.origins Friar Broccoli <EliasRK@gmail.com> wrote:
>On Aug 14, 1:06 am, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
>wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>>>>> life should exist on a substantial fraction of planets with life because
>>>>> natural selection broadly increases intelligence with time.

> .

>>>> Does it? News to me. What evidence do you have that this is the case?

> .

>>> There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
>>> species on earth with time.

>> Has there? What broad range, exactly? And if natural selection
>> broadly increased intelligence with time, we would expect all
>> species to be undergoing this push, wouldn't we?

> I don't see how this follows at all.  I would expect different
> species to adopt widely differing strategies depending on
> circumstances.  In plants, intelligence would be a complete
> waste of resources.  Others like Starfish and Jellyfish have
> used other strategies to ensure they can navigate and persist in
> their environments without needing intelligence.

The definition of evolutionary success is reproduction.  Using
that paradigm I conclude that intelligence, however defined,
is totally useless for evolutionary success.

No, I'm not just being cute.  Take a deep breath and look around
at the most successful life forms.

> Brains are one method for allowing adaptive behaviour which in
> turn allows creatures to harvest an often wide range of
> resources, while avoiding a wider range of dangers in an
> increasingly complex environment. (Not all species need or use
> this strategy, just as not all use hard parts, or get really
> big or whatever.)

However, we note that many non-mammels, including plants, have
managed to survive quite nicely without that sort of adaptive
behavior.

And none of this considers other forms of intelligence.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

Tim Tyler - 15 Aug 2008 07:39 GMT
> The definition of evolutionary success is reproduction.  Using
> that paradigm I conclude that intelligence, however defined,
> is totally useless for evolutionary success.

That's not logical.  The same argument "proves" that sex,
multicellularity, DNA, lipid membranes and mitochondria
are "totally useless for evolutionary success".
Signature

__________
 |im |yler  http://timtyler.org/  tim@tt1lock.org  Remove lock to reply.

Paul J Gans - 15 Aug 2008 17:36 GMT
In talk.origins Tim Tyler <seemysig@googlemail.com> wrote:

>> The definition of evolutionary success is reproduction.  Using
>> that paradigm I conclude that intelligence, however defined,
>> is totally useless for evolutionary success.

>That's not logical.  The same argument "proves" that sex,
>multicellularity, DNA, lipid membranes and mitochondria
>are "totally useless for evolutionary success".

Not really.  My point was made too obscurely.  Lots of
"unintelligent" things reproduce.  Clearly intelligence
is not *required*.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

Steven L. - 15 Aug 2008 18:52 GMT
> In talk.origins Friar Broccoli <EliasRK@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Aug 14, 1:06 am, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
>
> The definition of evolutionary success is reproduction.  

Not sufficient; the definition of evolutionary success is occupying and
dominating an ecological niche.  A species can reproduce and yet become
extinct if it is preyed on by another species.

Those Galapagos finches Darwin studied were successful NOT because they
reproduced; that's the mechanism, not the goal.  Their success was that
they *radiated* into all the available ecological niches on those islands.

> Using
> that paradigm I conclude that intelligence, however defined,
> is totally useless for evolutionary success.

The value of intelligence is it gives the species the ability to quickly
occupy new ecological niches without needing to evolve genetically.
Humans became the top predator on Earth without taking millions more
years to evolve bigger fangs and larger size and faster legs than
saber-toothed cats and other existing predators.  We did it by
outsmarting the saber-tooths and any other species vying for the top
predator niche.

What intelligence did for humans was NOT to produce more offspring than
beetles.  It enabled humans to become farmers (herbivores); hunters
(carnivores); SCUBA divers (deep-sea swimmers); fliers; and most
recently, outer space explorers.  We did all that without needing to
wait millions of years to evolve wings, gills, carapaces, etc.  Thus
humans colonized the entire planet, including the oceans and the air and
soon outer space.  All ecological niches.  All by the same genetic humans.

Signature

Steven L.
Email:  sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.

Paul J Gans - 16 Aug 2008 00:14 GMT
In talk.origins Steven L. <sdlitvin@earthlink.net> wrote:
>> In talk.origins Friar Broccoli <EliasRK@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On Aug 14, 1:06 am, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
>>
>> The definition of evolutionary success is reproduction.  

>Not sufficient; the definition of evolutionary success is occupying and
>dominating an ecological niche.  A species can reproduce and yet become
>extinct if it is preyed on by another species.

But it is sufficient.  Without it you are extinct.  With it you
aren't.

>Those Galapagos finches Darwin studied were successful NOT because they
>reproduced; that's the mechanism, not the goal.  Their success was that
>they *radiated* into all the available ecological niches on those islands.

That's how they survived in order to reproduce.

>> Using
>> that paradigm I conclude that intelligence, however defined,
>> is totally useless for evolutionary success.

>The value of intelligence is it gives the species the ability to quickly
>occupy new ecological niches without needing to evolve genetically.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>outsmarting the saber-tooths and any other species vying for the top
>predator niche.

Intelligence has value in our world, no doubt about it.  It is
just the simple observation that by any criteria, numbers, mass,
length of existance, whatever, we are not all that successful,
intelligent or not.

>What intelligence did for humans was NOT to produce more offspring than
>beetles.  It enabled humans to become farmers (herbivores); hunters
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>humans colonized the entire planet, including the oceans and the air and
>soon outer space.  All ecological niches.  All by the same genetic humans.

Producing many offspring is one way to keep reproducing.  Producing
them selectively is another.  So is changing their gender and the
time to sexual maturity.  All these exist.

And we don't occupy all ecological niches.  In fact, we spread by
destroying niches and converting them to the kind of niche we
like.  This is not intelligent behavior.

If we were truly intelligent, we'd be far better able to judge
risk and to understand contingencies.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

John Harshman - 15 Aug 2008 15:19 GMT
> On Aug 14, 1:06 am, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 24 lines]
>  used other strategies to ensure they can navigate and persist in
>  their environments without needing intelligence.

Exactly. So the blanket statement that there's been an increase in a
broad range of species, because natural selection selects for
intelligence, is wrong. Natural selection occasionally selects for
greater intelligence, sometimes for lesser. There is no general pattern.

>  Brains are one method for allowing adaptive behaviour which in
>  turn allows creatures to harvest an often wide range of
>  resources, while avoiding a wider range of dangers in an
>  increasingly complex environment. (Not all species need or use
>  this strategy, just as not all use hard parts, or get really
>  big or whatever.)

However, there is no general striving, even among those with brains,
toward human-level intelligence. That's my point.

>> Yet we see that brains exist only in a small subset of species
>> within one restricted clade (Metazoa), and that, depending on
[quoted text clipped - 24 lines]
>  Earth Creationist model.  Are Pagano, Martinez, and Pitman
>  starting to wear you down?

I agree that the random diffusion model is only a first approximation,
and it doesn't really work that way. Sometimes there are big
innovations, though not at any predictable rate; perhaps "chaotic" is a
better model than "random".

>  And even if you are arguing a diffusion model it plainly
>  doesn't fit some obvious facts:
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
>  it is clear from the abrupt change in slope of the curve that
>  something was DRIVING that increase.

All more or less true. There was a big increase in mean mammal brain
sizes (controlled for body size) sometime in the Oligocene, if I
remember, usually interpreted as an arms race between predators and
prey. And there have been several episodes of brain size increase in
various primates. Obviously it's not really diffusion, though it
resembles diffusion in gross characteristics. Even in diffusion, if you
want to predict what particles will be in the right tail tomorrow, which
will be further right than the right tail today, you say that some of
the particles in the right tail today are going to make up that new
right tail. The animals with the biggest brains today are likely to be
those with the biggest brains tomorrow, and some may be bigger than they
are today. But in fact the impetus toward bigger brains, even in
primates, seems a rare thing, because the conditions favoring
human-level intelligence are rare, even in primates.

>  Now returning to the specifics of which groups have done well
>  in the brain game, it appears to me that we have enough data
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>     of evolution given enough time.  You said further down that
>     it occurred at least five times.

"Inevitable" is too strong a word. For one thing, on earth it seems to
have crucially depended on the evolution of eukaryotes, which of course
happened only once, and after several billion years of evolution. It may
be that the most probable outcome is single-celled prokaryotes forever.

>  Brain development began in three separate lines of multicellular
>  animal:
>
> 2a - Cephalopoda (squids, octopuses)
> 2b - Gnathostomata (jawed vertebrates)
> 2c - Arthropod (crabs and insects)

Why 2c? They have no more complex brains than most non-gnathostomes.
There seems to be a level of brain power beyond which it's unlikely to
go, and the ancestral bilaterian may have had that sort of brain.

>  Your paragraph above mentions aves (together with mammalia) as
>  achieving exceptional levels of intelligence, but I know of no
>  work suggesting that birds are smarter than crocodiles, or
>  sharks (which have a brain/body ratio similar to mammals), or
>  octopus.

No? My understanding is that modern birds have unusually large
brain/body ratios for archosaurs. Sharks are another possible addition
to the list; hadn't considered them.

>  So in my book we see significant advances in intelligence in
>  at least five group lines:
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> 3d - Aves (birds)
> 3e - Mammals (John Harshman)

Aren't 3b and 3d the same instance, even if you accept 3d? Now in fact
I'd say that within gnathostomes we have no particular increases in
brain power between the root and Sauropsida. So we should leave 3b out.
Still 4, though.

>  Since Sauropsida began evolving about 300 million years ago and
>  Aves about 150 million years ago and modern mammals began
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>  probably not in all the reference groups over the entire
>  period.

I would deny that claim. There is no particular increase in brain size
in Sauropsida.

>  So it seems to me that we have passable physical and
>  inferential evidence for a steady increase in brain size and
>  intelligence over time, as well as a plausible model
>  (adaptation to an increasingly complex and competitive
>  environment) to explain why it occurred.

I don't think so. We have a few episodes of brain size increase in a few
groups, some of those episodes building on previous episodes. We find
ourselves in a group that has gone through more such episodes than any
other group, but it's always a small subset of each group that undergoes
a new episode, with the possible exception of the Oligocene arms race in
mammals.

>  Once again, I will ask you for evidence that the self-evident
>  and expected pattern is not (more or less) the one I am
>  describing.  Can you do any better than:
>
>    "I'm wary of claims that anything is self-evident, and
>     attempts to push the burden of proof onto the negative."

Sure. If the pattern were of a general increase in brain size in animals
in response to an environment of increasing complexity, we would expect
such increases to be broadly distributed over most or all groups.
Instead we get occasional bumps in a few groups. (And I see no sign that
arthropods are more clever now than in the Cambrian.) We certainly see
no trend, even in the groups that have received these bumps, toward
human-level intelligence.

It's very hard to generalize from a single example, which is what all
these probability calculations have to do. And clearly the diffusion
model is wrong in detail. We have two main departures: pre-adaptation
and incumbency.

Some innovations are impossible except in a background of particular,
previous innovations. So we can't talk about intelligence until we have
a multicellular animal with a nervous system. Human-level intelligence
must arise through a series of adaptations of varying probability. We
couldn't possibly have expected it to happen until the evolution of
bilaterians. Which happened only once, and so may be considered unlikely
by the only guide we have. After that crucial event, it took another
half billion years or more to get us; again, doesn't seem a likely thing.

Incumbency would argue in the opposite direction. Perhaps the presence
of a group with a particular innovation fills up that slot and prevents
any other group from achieving it. This certainly happens sometimes.
Maybe the otters are just raring to start chipping stone tools, but we
keep them from it. This too seems unlikely, since we are only a recent
development, and otters have had plenty of time to try it before we
showed up. Hey, we've only been in the Americas for 15,000 years or so.
Where are the American intelligent species? So incumbency, in this case,
doesn't seem to be a credible factor.
Friar Broccoli - 17 Aug 2008 02:29 GMT
OK, I read your post carefully, and agree with you in every case
where you challenged me on a point of fact (with one or two
marginal exceptions).  Therefore, to keep this reply reasonably
clean I have snipped everything up to your concluding paragraphs
which I will write away from.  Sorry about the length.

> If the pattern were of a general increase in brain size in
> animals in response to an environment of increasing
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> trend, even in the groups that have received these bumps,
> toward human-level intelligence.

To convince you that intelligence is an inevitable (or at least
a not improbable) consequence of evolution I believe I must
demonstrate that it has a function in a specific type of niche.
I must also show that that niche will pretty much always come
into existence during an evolutionary process and that the
function is sufficiently important that evolution will always
drive some creatures toward it.  What follows is my first
attempt:

To lay the groundwork I will first return to your assertion
that all groups should be increasing in intelligence in
response to an increasingly complex environment:

Basically, this isn't necessary, there are lots of other ways
of responding to complexity like:

- hide in the mud or dirt (worms, bivalves, many insects)
- breed so fast that you reproduce faster than you're eaten
- organize yourself so that if most of you is eaten, you keep
  growing anyway (plants)
- remain so small that it's hard to find you
- grow too big for anything to eat you
- develop a hard to penetrate shell
- become completely inedible (starfish)
- develop a better digestive system so you can eat a larger
  variety of things that are trying to be inedible
- developing a really good immune system
- become poisonous
- develop immunity to poisons, which among other things will
  often allow you to eat poisonous plants and animals
- become really fast

and so on.

Some combination of other strategies like the ones I have
mentioned above will frequently make much intelligence
unnecessary and often completely useless.  With the possible
exception of an immune system all the above appear easier to
achieve than intelligence, so most life forms are going to
"choose" one or more of the alternatives in most situations.

I hope that deals with your {everything should be getting
smarter} objection.  If so, it remains for me to show what
specific environments strongly favor the development of
intelligence.

I think that can be seen just by considering what most
intelligent animals have in common:

1 they are often wandering around in the open.
2 they eat a wide variety of foods.
3 they are themselves good to eat.
4 they are almost continuously active.

There are quite a few complicating exceptions and probably
other and better ways of organizing this list, but I am hoping
you get the idea.

The first two characteristics are both desirable and the third
is (I believe) a biproduct of needs created by the first two.
The forth I don't see as important and results (I believe) from
the need to feed the demanding brain.

The main driver is the benefit of being able to eat a wide
range of foods, or at least switch quickly when conditions
change.  (I note that Steven L mentioned this in one of his
posts too.)  Being able to switch food sources is obviously a
very good hedge against short term shortages as well as long
term extinction.

As a practical matter an animal can rarely use multiple food
sources unless it is highly mobile, and in many cases you must
be among the most mobile animals about or somebody else is
going to eat your lunch before you, or often lunch is going to
run away.

The high mobility requirement usually implies that you are good
to eat because you need things like flexible muscles to achieve
that mobility.

Thus, I contend, that there are clear practical reasons why
good-to-eat mobile creatures will arise in any ecology
containing multicellular organisms.

But obviously, if you are mobile and good eats, some of those
other mobile creatures are going to start eating you.  So you
will need to augment your senses with software filters (brains)
that allow you to reliably detect and then take the actions
needed to evade your predators.  Which will require your
predators to ... and you know better than I how an arms race
works.

OK, now I think I've got myself to the point where I have shown
that the development of intelligence is at least an expected
(and nearly inevitable) consequence of evolution following
multicellularity.

I think it is also useful to try to account for the bumpiness
(the starts and stops in the arms race leading to increasing
intelligence).  For me the cause of this bumpiness seems
obvious:

At root, brains are really expensive to maintain.  We
continuously use about 20% of our rest energy to maintain our
brains.  Obviously, no animal can afford an energy sink this
large unless it is continuously at least paying for itself, in
resource acquisition and/or predator avoidance.  Thus static
brain size (or even shrinkage if efficiencies are "discovered")
will be the norm over most evolutionary time.  This will be
reinforced by the use of metabolically cheaper solutions like
quills, improved hearing etc.

Thus, major improvements (especially those involving brain size
increases) will only occur when a species has a big problem (or
perhaps a big opportunity) that cannot be handled in another
cheaper (and findable) way.  Human evolution during the last 3
million years seems to present a pretty obvious case in point:

There we were, out on the savannas with the protective forests
dying all around us.  Slow moving lunch for large predators,
and much of what we'd like to eat could run faster than us and
so on.  The quickest fix was an increase in brain size to
facilitate more effective cooperative behaviour together with
tool making and so on.  No metabolically cheaper evolutionary
solution (apart from extinction) appears to have been
available, because humans were so much slower and poorly
defended than everything else in that environment.

Once the predators and food supplies were no longer an
overwhelming problem, we got progressively better at
exterminating each other, which helped keep the brain growth
process moving along.  (I know about the sexual selection model
but am skeptical of it.)

Although I can think of no way of proving (or even
demonstrating) it, I suspect that brain size increase didn't
quickly top out in humans, because each incremental increase
was more than compensated for in terms of the additional
resources that could be accessed to fuel the larger brain.
(The big brainers could always out-compete their smaller
cousins)

So basically, I am pitching the idea that abrupt increases in
brain size are caused by periodic environmental
changes/problems that cannot readily be solved by other means.

> It's very hard to generalize from a single example, which is
> what all these probability calculations have to do. And
> clearly the diffusion model is wrong in detail. We have two
> main departures: pre-adaptation and incumbency.

> Some innovations are impossible except in a background of
> particular, previous innovations. So we can't talk about
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> crucial event, it took another half billion years or more to
> get us; again, doesn't seem a likely thing.

You have previously argued that multicellularity (another
pre-adaptation) may have been a one-off, so I'd like to briefly
address that before turning to bilateralism.

There are lots of ways of looking at this question, but all of
them boil down to competition forcing innovation.  We are
pretty sure that eukaryotes themselves arose in large part as
an adaptation to parasitism where a host worked out a
cooperative arrangement with some pre-organelle parasites, and
over a long enough period of time weird combinations like that
are going to lead to innovations which will eventually lead to
things like multicellularity and sexual replication and so
forth.

Multicellularity looks particularly likely to arise because of
bacterial mats, which although they are not single organisms,
their members do frequently cooperate together in ways that mimic
multi-cellular organisms in order to monopolize some resource
like sunlight.  Thus, there is pressure on (or an opportunity
for) some other organism to become truly multi-cellular in
order to compete more effectively with the mats.

Thus I think that something eukaryote like would have arisen
eventually and multicellularity thereafter, although I must
admit that I don't really understand what special properties
eukaryotes have that make them unique candidates for
multicellularity.

Bilateralism I see completely differently.  Just as no sea
animal can crawl out onto land to begin evolving air breathing
lungs to function on land, without being eaten by a raccoon,
and likewise no other species can evolve our level of
intelligence (unless we want it to); bilaterals also have a
huge advantage in incumbency.

To save space and effort, I won't make the argument here, but
it seems obvious to me that evolution was extremely rapid
following the introduction of bilateralism, giving rise almost
immediately to Arthropoda, Vertebrata, and Mollusca thereby
taking immediate possession of all available niches.  Thus it
happened only once because it was such a good idea.  Also since
we see a failed effort at trilateralism in the fossil record
(the name of a famous university is struggling to rise into my
consciousness), other attempts at bilateralism would surely
have occurred as variants of that.

> Incumbency would argue in the opposite direction. Perhaps the
> presence of a group with a particular innovation fills up that
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> so. Where are the American intelligent species? So incumbency,
> in this case, doesn't seem to be a credible factor.

I don't agree with this logic at all.  Secondarily, the Asian
super continent (including Africa and India) is a big place with
many competing species that can drive innovation in one
another.  In smaller locations with less complex environments
and lower variation, like islands; useful innovations (like
flight) are more likely to be lost than generated.

North and South America (which must be treated separately since
they only joined up recently) and Australia may add variation
but won't produce the most effective competitors.  Thus, I
think the Asian super continent is the place where a major new
innovation (like advanced intelligence) was most likely to occur
first.

More importantly, the preconditions for the development of
advanced intelligence have been in place for maybe 150 million
years.  So the 3 million years we took to make the move
represents 2% of that time slot.  Thus at any particular
moment, any particular candidate group (say Otters) had no more
than a 1/50 shot at the top position.  Since we wiped out lots
of other species (probably including at least two other hominan
subspecies) in our climb, it is clear that we aren't gonna let
no dolphins muscle in on our territory now that we got it.

If the Otters had beaten us to the punch, we would now be at
least as screwed as the dolphins now are.

Thus in summary:

Users of Intelligence occupy specific types of niches featuring
mobility and flexible eating habits. To effectively occupy this
type of niche an animal pretty much must have intelligence.

Creatures occupying this type of niche frequently get into arms
races with each other, which sometimes involves intelligence
itself, which will then increase unless a less costly
alternative adaptation is available.

Since these arms races are periodic increases in brain capacity
follows a bumpy path.

On the deeper issue of: is intelligence a likely outcome of any
arbitrary evolutionary process beginning from single celled
creatures:

Well obviously it cannot evolve in an environment where
complexity and thus competition are strongly constrained, as for
example, in the subsoil of Mars.

However, in any environment where multi-dimensional arms races
can get going, innovations for prerequisites like multicellularity
and bilateralism are close to inevitable.

I hope I haven't made you sick, but I can never guess with you.

Cordially;

Friar Broccoli
Robert Keith Elias, Quebec, Canada  Email: EliasRK (of) gmail * com
Best programmer's & all purpose text editor: http://www.semware.com

--------- I consider ALL arguments in support of my views ---------
John Harshman - 17 Aug 2008 22:31 GMT
> OK, I read your post carefully, and agree with you in every case
> where you challenged me on a point of fact (with one or two
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
>  drive some creatures toward it.  What follows is my first
>  attempt:

I don't think you have managed to show any such thing. Your "type of
niche" is broad enough to include both smart and stupid animals, which
no indication that the smart ones were inevitable, much less human
intelligence. Nor do I think you have shown that the particular "niche",
active animals, is inevitable either.

>  To lay the groundwork I will first return to your assertion
>  that all groups should be increasing in intelligence in
>  response to an increasingly complex environment:

That wasn't my assertion. It was yours. You said that increases in
intelligence were inevitable if the environment became more complex. I
disagreed. You list below is a refutation of your original claim.

>  Basically, this isn't necessary, there are lots of other ways
>  of responding to complexity like:

>  - hide in the mud or dirt (worms, bivalves, many insects)
>  - breed so fast that you reproduce faster than you're eaten
[quoted text clipped - 76 lines]
>  (and nearly inevitable) consequence of evolution following
>  multicellularity.

No, I don't think you have. There is no particular reason why we would
expect multicellular animals to have evolved. Multicellularity is rare
enough, but mobile, multicellular animals are a single event. I will
agree that given such animals, a nervous system is a likely eventual
development, and a brain is also likely. But I see no reason why
intelligence follows, unless you have set the bar very low.

And in fact a great many groups of animals have brains. But note that
you don't need that good a brain, in human terms, do do what you
discuss. Your description would fit the world just fine if the smartest
animals around were all arthropods, and there were no vertebrates. It
would seem that even reptilian-level intelligence is hardly inevitable.

Even if we limit ourself to land vertebrates, note that highly active,
behaviorally flexible sorts have existed since the Permian at least. And
yet human-level intelligence has arisen only once in 300 million years.
That hardly seems a likely event, much less an inevitable one.

>  I think it is also useful to try to account for the bumpiness
>  (the starts and stops in the arms race leading to increasing
[quoted text clipped - 26 lines]
>  available, because humans were so much slower and poorly
>  defended than everything else in that environment.

That's certainly a customary and facile explanation for why we have such
big brains. I have no idea if it's true, or how one would go about
testing the hypothesis. Nor do I think it makes much sense to suppose
that we are slow and poorly defended. Best if you realize that the
reasons we got to our current state are speculative.

>  Once the predators and food supplies were no longer an
>  overwhelming problem, we got progressively better at
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>  brain size are caused by periodic environmental
>  changes/problems that cannot readily be solved by other means.

That seems a meaningless statement. Increases in brain size are caused
by environments in which increased brain size is advantageous. You don't
seem to have characterized such environments in any significant way.

>> It's very hard to generalize from a single example, which is
>> what all these probability calculations have to do. And
[quoted text clipped - 15 lines]
>  pre-adaptation) may have been a one-off, so I'd like to briefly
>  address that before turning to bilateralism.

No I haven't. There are several instances. What I have argued is that it
seems to require something that eukaryotes, or perhaps a restricted
group within eukaryotes have, though I don't know what that is. Anyway,
somewhere, eukaryotes evolved something that made multicellularity more
likely, though still not all that likely.

>  There are lots of ways of looking at this question, but all of
>  them boil down to competition forcing innovation.  We are
>  pretty sure that eukaryotes themselves arose in large part as
>  an adaptation to parasitism where a host worked out a
>  cooperative arrangement with some pre-organelle parasites,

No, we are sure of no such thing. A simple alternative is a failure to
digest some of one's food, which turns out to be advantageous.

>  and
>  over a long enough period of time weird combinations like that
>  are going to lead to innovations which will eventually lead to
>  things like multicellularity and sexual replication and so
>  forth.

I see no reason why organelles would lead to any of that.

>  Multicellularity looks particularly likely to arise because of
>  bacterial mats, which although they are not single organisms,
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>  for) some other organism to become truly multi-cellular in
>  order to compete more effectively with the mats.

This seems odd to credit bacterial mats for the rise of
multicellularity, since mats are billions of years old.

>  Thus I think that something eukaryote like would have arisen
>  eventually and multicellularity thereafter, although I must
>  admit that I don't really understand what special properties
>  eukaryotes have that make them unique candidates for
>  multicellularity.

Nor do I. I merely know that no prokaryote has achieved much in that
department, so I infer that there is something.

>  Bilateralism I see completely differently.  Just as no sea
>  animal can crawl out onto land to begin evolving air breathing
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>  taking immediate possession of all available niches.  Thus it
>  happened only once because it was such a good idea.

That may be obvious to you, but it's not obvious to me.

>  Also since
>  we see a failed effort at trilateralism in the fossil record
>  (the name of a famous university is struggling to rise into my
>  consciousness), other attempts at bilateralism would surely
>  have occurred as variants of that.

I have no idea what you mean there, unless it's Tribrachidium.

>> Incumbency would argue in the opposite direction. Perhaps the
>> presence of a group with a particular innovation fills up that
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>  and lower variation, like islands; useful innovations (like
>  flight) are more likely to be lost than generated.

Really? It would seem to me that if there were indeed reduced
competition, useful innovations would be less likely to be lost. The
reason flight is lost on islands is of course because it isn't
advantageous; however, flight was not lost in North or South America.

>  North and South America (which must be treated separately since
>  they only joined up recently) and Australia may add variation
>  but won't produce the most effective competitors.  Thus, I
>  think the Asian super continent is the place where a major new
>  innovation (like advanced intelligence) was most likely to occur
>  first.

This is Old World chauvinism, nothing more. There's been plenty of
innovation in the Americas, some of which has managed to be exported to
the Old World. I should also point out that you are cheating by making
Africa part of Asia, as it hasn't been connected until fairly recently,
though longer than North and South America.

>  More importantly, the preconditions for the development of
>  advanced intelligence have been in place for maybe 150 million
>  years.

Why that time period, especially? I would have gone with twice that long.

>  So the 3 million years we took to make the move
>  represents 2% of that time slot.  Thus at any particular
>  moment, any particular candidate group (say Otters) had no more
>  than a 1/50 shot at the top position.

I don't see the logic behind that.

>  Since we wiped out lots
>  of other species (probably including at least two other hominan
>  subspecies) in our climb, it is clear that we aren't gonna let
>  no dolphins muscle in on our territory now that we got it.

There is no good evidence that we wiped out any other hominids, though
it's certainly possible.

>  If the Otters had beaten us to the punch, we would now be at
>  least as screwed as the dolphins now are.
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>  mobility and flexible eating habits. To effectively occupy this
>  type of niche an animal pretty much must have intelligence.

This is too vague to be useful. What constitutes intelligence? There are
plenty of animals with flexible eating habits that are less intelligent
than other animals with less flexible habits. The Oligocene increase in
mammal average intelligence was fueled by an arms race between
carnivores and herbivores, both of which got smarter. It wasn't
flexibility in eating habits so much as in behavior affecting that
particular conflict.

>  Creatures occupying this type of niche frequently get into arms
>  races with each other, which sometimes involves intelligence
>  itself, which will then increase unless a less costly
>  alternative adaptation is available.

No, I don't think so. I know of only one such arms race, the one
featuring Oligocene mammals.

>  Since these arms races are periodic increases in brain capacity
>  follows a bumpy path.

>  On the deeper issue of: is intelligence a likely outcome of any
>  arbitrary evolutionary process beginning from single celled
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>  can get going, innovations for prerequisites like multicellularity
>  and bilateralism are close to inevitable.

That just doesn't follow. Now in fact there does seem to have been an
arms race that we know of as the Cambrian explosion, but it would also
seem to have been waged between predators and prey largely in the medium
of armor. It may have involved brains too, but there doesn't seem to be
a good way to tell.

>  I hope I haven't made you sick, but I can never guess with you.

You haven't made me sick, but I don't think you have made your point.
It's all just special pleading, in my opinion.
Sapient Fridge - 16 Aug 2008 12:10 GMT
In message
<6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69806@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
Friar Broccoli <EliasRK@gmail.com> writes
>On Aug 13, 8:38 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
>wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
>species on earth with time.

More accurately, a few isolated branches of metazoans have shown
increases in intelligence in the last 500 million years.

The majority of metazoans show little change in intelligence in that
time and the vast majority of biomass on the planet lacks a nervous
systems.
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Paul J Gans - 16 Aug 2008 21:04 GMT
In talk.origins Sapient Fridge <use_reply_address@spamsights.org> wrote:
>In message
><6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69806@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
>>There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
>>species on earth with time.

>More accurately, a few isolated branches of metazoans have shown
>increases in intelligence in the last 500 million years.

>The majority of metazoans show little change in intelligence in that
>time and the vast majority of biomass on the planet lacks a nervous
>systems.

Of the sort we recognize as a nervous system.  *All* living and
quite a few non-living things respond to stimuli, with or without
a nervous system.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

John Wilkins - 17 Aug 2008 04:02 GMT
> In message
> <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69806@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 18 lines]
> time and the vast majority of biomass on the planet lacks a nervous
> systems.

I think that we hit the plateau for intelligence sometime in the
Triassic and everything since then has been much the same, except for a
couple of outliers.
Signature

John S. Wilkins, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Philosophy
University of Queensland - Blog: scienceblogs.com/evolvingthoughts
"He used... sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor,
bathos, puns, parody, litotes and... satire. He was vicious."

Max - 18 Aug 2008 00:12 GMT
> > In message
> > <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 23 lines]
> couple of outliers.
> --

I'm not certain about that, but in any case it's the outliers that
we're looking for. The question is how often the distribution reaches
that far.

> John S. Wilkins, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Philosophy
> University of Queensland - Blog: scienceblogs.com/evolvingthoughts
> "He used... sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor,
> bathos, puns, parody, litotes and... satire. He was vicious."- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
John Wilkins - 18 Aug 2008 02:42 GMT
> > > In message
> > > <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
> we're looking for. The question is how often the distribution reaches
> that far.

Twice: psitaccoformes and hominoids. Corvoids do well too.

Signature

John S. Wilkins, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Philosophy
University of Queensland - Blog: scienceblogs.com/evolvingthoughts
"He used... sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor,
bathos, puns, parody, litotes and... satire. He was vicious."

John Harshman - 18 Aug 2008 04:02 GMT
>>>> In message
>>>> <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 23 lines]
>
> Twice: psitaccoformes and hominoids. Corvoids do well too.

How did you manage to come up with that? What counts as an outlier, and why?
John Wilkins - 18 Aug 2008 04:26 GMT
> >>>> In message
> >>>> <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 25 lines]
> >
> How did you manage to come up with that? What counts as an outlier, and why?

Tool use and construction, and symbolic communication by use of words.
Corvids have the former, parrots the latter (some parrots, anyway). Some
hominids too.
Signature

John S. Wilkins, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Philosophy
University of Queensland - Blog: scienceblogs.com/evolvingthoughts
"He used... sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor,
bathos, puns, parody, litotes and... satire. He was vicious."

John Harshman - 18 Aug 2008 04:57 GMT
>>>>>> In message
>>>>>> <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 28 lines]
> Corvids have the former, parrots the latter (some parrots, anyway). Some
> hominids too.

Why does any of those count, and why, if so, shouldn't you also count
termites, beavers, most other birds (for construction) and the Galapagos
woodpecker finch (for tool use)? And of course none of these
characteristics fossilize, so we have no idea whether they plateaued in
the Triassic.
John Wilkins - 18 Aug 2008 05:02 GMT
> >>>>>> In message
> >>>>>> <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 35 lines]
> characteristics fossilize, so we have no idea whether they plateaued in
> the Triassic.

Just more outliers :-)
Signature

John S. Wilkins, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Philosophy
University of Queensland - Blog: scienceblogs.com/evolvingthoughts
"He used... sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor,
bathos, puns, parody, litotes and... satire. He was vicious."

John Harshman - 18 Aug 2008 14:34 GMT
>>>>>>>> In message
>>>>>>>> <6aca6bc0-1c68-4916-ad98-32742cd69...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
[quoted text clipped - 35 lines]
>
> Just more outliers :-)

There's a Permian therapsid, forget its name, that built a very nice
spiral burrow. Does that count?
K_h - 25 Aug 2008 01:03 GMT
> On Aug 13, 8:38 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
> species on earth with time.

Judging from the replies, it looks like there are a lot of people out there
who really want extraterrestrial life to be relatively common.  The Fermi
paradox, and the vast combinatorial possibilities for atoms and molecules,
plausibly suggests that both extraterrestrial life and extraterrestrial
intelligence are relatively rare.

The evolution of life and intelligence may occur in the following way.  The
evolutionary tree of life may be like a shrub and the height of each shrub
leaf, say, is proportional to the intelligence of the species represented by
that leaf.  As the shrub grows, it has branches growing in all directions,
from zero degrees to ninety degrees relative to the shrub's base.

A leaf at the end of a branch at zero degrees is almost at ground level and
that leaf corresponds to a species whose intelligence has not changed much
over billions of years, for example primitive bacteria like life.  Leafs at
the top of the shrub, around ninety degrees, correspond to species with the
most amount of intelligence (for the biosphere represented by that shrub).

Here on the Earth, for example, the hominoid family, and probably a few
others species like Dolphins, are represented by leafs that are around
ninety degrees on Earth's `shrub of life'.  As a shrub grows, it has
branches that grow in all directions, from zero degrees to ninety degrees.
In this sense evolution is not selecting for intelligence since the branches
are randomly growing in all directions.

But there is a broad increase in intelligence since the average height of
the shrub increases while it grows.  On any biosphere, as its `shrub of
life' grows there will probably come a time when a leaf or two reaches a
sufficient height that its corresponding species is capable of radio
astronomy.  Once this happens then that species reworks that planet's biota
which prevents any other species from evolving into high intelligence.  It
is certainly possible that most planets with life follow this pattern.

There is no evidence that other instances of the origin of life, with a
different genetic basis, would be consumed by any other life prior to
establishing its own survival.  A genetic code based on a different set of
atoms and molecules would not necessarily be palatable to any other life.
In fact, it could be toxic.  Two different sets of biochemistry could have
their progeny ignore each other like many species on Earth only have a very
small set of predator and prey.  Obviously they would co-evolve because of
mutual interactions and symbiotic relationships would exist.

If multiple instances of the origin of life occur the same planet then there
is no reason to think that they would not all have long-term progeny.  Drop
the old western mentality that says "This planet is not big enough for the
both of us".

There is no evidence that (1) DNA is the only basis for life, (2) multiple
instances of the origin of life have occurred on the Earth, (3) on any
planet one origin of life make other such origins implausible, and (4)
primitive self-replicating molecules are forming all the time on Earth.  In
fact, there may never have been an origin of life in the solar system.  Life
may have migrated to the solar system on debris from an earlier solar system
and this could explain Earthly life so soon after the Earth's formation.

Since little is known about the geology and chemistry of planets in other
solar systems, there could be many ways that an oxygen rich atmosphere
arises by non-biological means.  Check out the below link for just such an
example.  To claim that oxygen in a planet's atmosphere is a litmus test for
life is unfairly stacking the deck against more prosaic possibilities.  It
is unlikely that alien life would use the exact same photosynthesis that
biological processes employ on Earth, or even have O2 as a waste product.

http://www.physlink.com/News/020304ExopanetOC.cfm

With just today's technology, astronomers are able to map about a million
galaxies in the Sloan digital sky survey.  So it is fair to assume that a
civilization in our galaxy, that is 200,000 years ahead of ours, would have
mapped all, or most, of the stars and planets within the Milky Way galaxy.
To see why note that, in the past century, the technology was developed to
automate the production of hundreds of millions of cars.  A civilization
200,000 years ahead of ours would easily have automated the production of
millions of large space based telescopes capable of discovering most of the
planets within the Milky Way.

Such a civilization would already know about the Earth and would be capable
of sending space probes to Earth.  Furthermore, a civilization like that
could easily automate the long term continuous broadcasting of
multi-frequency signals toward millions of favorable planets, especially
since its space based automatic broadcasting equipment would have automated
self maintenance systems and therefore require little or no effort to
maintain.  Fermi's paradox applies not only to extraterrestrial life
visiting the Earth but also to extraterrestrial life broadcasting to the
Earth.

In conclusion, it is quite possible that f_L is a very small number and life
is quite rare.

k
chris thompson - 29 Aug 2008 13:47 GMT
> On Aug 13, 8:38 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> There has been an increase in the intelligence of a broad range of
> species on earth with time.

I saw a documentary that showed velociraptors were smarter than
people :)

Chris
Paul J Gans - 14 Aug 2008 17:27 GMT
In talk.origins John Harshman <jharshman.diespamdie@pacbell.net> wrote:
>> Fermi's paradox suggests that there are little or no other intelligent
>> civilizations within the Milky Way galaxy.  On the other hand, intelligent
>> life should exist on a substantial fraction of planets with life because
>> natural selection broadly increases intelligence with time.

>Does it? News to me. What evidence do you have that this is the case?

There is also the problem that there could easily be more than one
kind of intelligence.  Many living (and non-living) things respond
to stimuli.  At what point does that become intelligence?

Does the definition of intelligence require that television be
invented?

[snip]

>> That is, in the Drake equation, f_L should be far
>> smaller than most people think it is.  Even on planets that are life
>> friendly the formation of life should be extremely rare for the below
>> reasons.

The Drake equation assumes that the ETs will be blasting out
electromagnetic waves at a furious rate.  *We* started doing
that only in around 1920 or so and already we are doing less
and less of it.  By 2120 we could easily be using wired or
directed sources and no indiscriminate electromagnetic radiation
at all.

Signature

  --- Paul J. Gans

John Harshman - 14 Aug 2008 17:41 GMT
> In talk.origins John Harshman <jharshman.diespamdie@pacbell.net> wrote:
>>> Fermi's paradox suggests that there are little or no other intelligent
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> Does the definition of intelligence require that television be
> invented?

I believe that the operational definition of intelligence as used in the
Drake equation does require this, or at least an intelligence capable of
inventing interstellar communication and/or travel.

>>> That is, in the Drake equation, f_L should be far
>>> smaller than most people think it is.  Even on planets that are life
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> directed sources and no indiscriminate electromagnetic radiation
> at all.

Yes, one solution would be for all civilizations to render themselves
undetectable very soon after becoming detectable. This assumes they
don't go in for travel or communication, and never make noticeable
changes to their habitat (like Dyson spheres and such). It seems to me
that this assumption would require humans to be a very unusual sort of
intelligence, because we're going to go in for communication and travel
as soon as we figure out how, if we don't collapse first.
Max - 15 Aug 2008 01:30 GMT
On Aug 14, 12:41 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
wrote:
> > In talk.origins John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net> wrote:
> >>> Fermi's paradox suggests that there are little or no other intelligent
[quoted text clipped - 34 lines]
> intelligence, because we're going to go in for communication and travel
> as soon as we figure out how, if we don't collapse first.

Will we? It seems without a strong stimulus the impetus is lacking.
And when we do feel like communicating, will we decide to start
broadcasting radio waves fiercely enough to be detected by one of the
local star systems using the same technology we presently use? Seems
unlikely to me. And does the drake equation take into account the
number of star systems within a given range. The farther the system
the less likely we are to detect any kind of signal.
John Harshman - 15 Aug 2008 02:02 GMT
> On Aug 14, 12:41 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 32 lines]
>
> Will we?

That's my take.

> It seems without a strong stimulus the impetus is lacking.

Depends on how much it costs. I see slight extrapolations of current
technology as bringing that cost way down. It will eventually be cheap
to explore and inhabit the solar system, and this will make it very
cheap to start using a major fraction of the sun's energy, to the point
where even interstellar travel would become feasible. If it's feasible,
someone will do it.

> And when we do feel like communicating, will we decide to start
> broadcasting radio waves fiercely enough to be detected by one of the
> local star systems using the same technology we presently use?

What, other than electromagnetic radiation, would you suggest? If we
want to communicate with hypothetical aliens, what else is there?

It seems to me that your first statement assumes that there will be no
advance in technology, such that communication and travel are forever
prohibitively expensive, and your second assumes there will be a
fundamental breakthrough in physics that's incomprehensible to current
science. Which seems mutually contradictory.

> Seems
> unlikely to me. And does the drake equation take into account the
> number of star systems within a given range. The farther the system
> the less likely we are to detect any kind of signal.

No, the Drake equation attempts to calculate the density of
civilizations in the galaxy, from which you could calculate mean range
if you wanted to. If there are very few civilizations, and if they don't
travel or send out probes, you have a point. But I think, if humans are
a guide, that they eventually would do both. And a very slow rate of
expansion fills up the galaxy rather quickly in geological terms.